Sierra Leone
Score moved 4 → 5 . “A "super" El Niño is building as Sierra Leone's rains run 43% short and temperatures climb 2.1°C above normal”
Sierra Leone's 2026 rainy season opened on schedule with mostly average to above-average rainfall in bimodal areas, but measured rainfall from 9 July to 6 October came in 43% below the 1991–2020 normal while mean temperatures ran 2.1°C above average. Forecasters warn that ocean temperatures are approaching record highs as a "super" El Niño develops, with the African Development Bank's climate chief projecting a $10–20 billion economic hit across affected African countries and renewed calls for global action at UNGA 81. The combination of a dry, hot lean season and a strengthening El Niño points to a below-normal October–November harvest and rising food and water stress across the country.
716 mm vs 1257.6 mm normal
Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran 43% below the 1991–2020 normal, even as FEWS NET reported a normal start to the season with average to above-average rains in bimodal areas.
News source25.66°C mean vs 23.59°C normal
Mean temperatures for the same window were 2.1°C above normal, consistent with warnings that ocean temperatures are approaching record highs under a strengthening El Niño.
News sourcePlanting and the rainy season opened on schedule in June–July, but the sharp rainfall deficit and heat stress through the lean season are expected to curb yields and push the October–November harvest below normal.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (8.5°, -11.5°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Sierra Leone and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
A 43% rainfall deficit and +2.1°C heat through the June–August lean season are expected to cut yields and shrink the October–November harvest, worsening food insecurity.
Below-normal rains are likely to lower river levels, reservoir recharge and dry-season water availability, increasing pressure on rural and urban supplies.
Heat stress, water scarcity and deteriorating nutrition are expected to raise the risk of dehydration, waterborne disease and child malnutrition.
Reduced river flows are expected to curb hydropower output, raising reliance on costly thermal generation and increasing the risk of load shedding.
Warmer coastal waters and shifting currents may displace pelagic stocks, disrupting artisanal and industrial catches and the livelihoods that depend on them.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Sierra Leone responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño episode coincided with below-average rains and heat stress in parts of West Africa, adding to food and water pressures in the region.
unsourced background2015-16
A powerful El Niño contributed to erratic rainfall, poor harvests and elevated food insecurity across West Africa, with Sierra Leone among the affected countries.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought drought and crop failure across West Africa, including Sierra Leone, and is widely cited as a benchmark for regional food insecurity.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSOvershoot of Paris Agreement and the Looming Super El Niño Drive Urgent Calls for Global Climate Action at UNGA 81
What I Heard About Heat at Climate Week
#Africa facing $10-$20 billion economic hit from 'super' El Niño, #AfDB climate chief warns An impending "super" #El_Niño is likely to inflict a combined $10 billion to $20 billion hit on affected African countries and trigger mass migration from hard-hit areas, the
El Nino forecast as ocean temperatures approach record highs
Nearby
Neighbouring countries