Monaco
Score moved 2 → 3 . “A record-strength El Niño is building offshore — here's what it means for Monaco's summer”
A powerful El Niño is building and the world is bracing for the heat, with UN experts describing the event as 'off the charts' and 'supersizing before our eyes'. For Monaco the canonical signal is weak, and measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran only about 7% below the 1991–2020 normal, so the principality is unlikely to see the extreme drought or flooding that has hit other regions. The main local concern is heat: articles warn this El Niño could rival the 1997-98 event, pointing to above-average temperatures and elevated heat-stress risk through the late-summer growing season.
113.6 mm vs 122 mm normal
Measured rainfall for Monaco over 9 July–6 October 2026 came in about 7% below the 1991–2020 normal, a modest drying signal consistent with the weak El Niño influence the articles describe for this region.
The reanalysis value for this window is more than four standard deviations from the 1991–2020 record, so we withhold it rather than publish a likely data artifact.
The articles report a powerful, 'off-the-charts' El Niño driving global heat, so Monaco should expect above-average temperatures through the period, though no country-specific temperature figure is cited.
News sourceWith rainfall only slightly below normal and the spring-to-autumn growing calendar intact, Monaco's growing season is expected to proceed on schedule, with minor irrigation demand increases likely.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (43.7°, 7.4°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Monaco and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Slightly below-normal rainfall and above-average heat are likely to raise irrigation demand for Monaco's limited peri-urban and terraced crops, though the growing season should remain on schedule.
With rainfall only about 7% below normal, reservoir and supply stress is expected to be minimal, but higher evaporation from heat could tighten demand in late summer.
Elevated heat is likely to increase heat-stress risk for vulnerable residents, with warmer conditions also favouring vector-borne disease activity in the region.
Above-average temperatures are expected to lift summer cooling demand and peak electricity loads, particularly for air conditioning in dense urban areas.
Warmer Mediterranean sea surface temperatures associated with this El Niño may shift local fish stocks and stress marine habitats along the Monaco coastline.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Monaco responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño that contributed to global heat records and marine heatwaves in the Mediterranean, raising coastal and energy-sector stress in the region.
unsourced background2015-16
Another strong El Niño that produced record global temperatures and heatwaves across Europe, with Monaco experiencing warmer-than-normal summers and modest rainfall deficits.
unsourced background1997-98
A very strong El Niño widely cited as a benchmark for extreme global heat and weather disruption, referenced in coverage as an event that killed thousands.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
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Nearby
Neighbouring countries