Chad
Chad is in the path of one of the strongest El Niño events on record, with UN and UNICEF reporting that more than 347 million children across nearly 100 countries face exposure to its impacts. Reanalysis for 9 July–6 October 2026 shows rainfall about 66% below the 1991–2020 normal and mean temperatures roughly 3.4°C above normal, though that window is Chad's climatological dry season, so the operative signal is the drier tendency El Niño imposes on the coming rains. Health facilities such as a small hospital in Chad are already being cited as models of climate resilience as the country braces for weaker rains, heat stress and disease pressure through the July–September peak.
Afghanistan
A strong El Niño, with global sea-surface temperature anomalies well above the +0.5°C threshold, is expected to be a key driver of Afghanistan's 2026/27 agricultural season. Articles project a wetter-than-normal winter and spring rainy season, which would favour wheat and rangeland recovery but also raise the risk of flash floods and waterborne disease during the December–March peak. Measured temperatures for July–October 2026 were +2.1°C above normal, and the dry-season rainfall picture is near average, so the decisive signal will be how the coming rains unfold.
Sector by sector
Weaker, more erratic rains during the June–September season are expected to cut millet, sorghum and pasture yields, deepening the June–August lean season and threatening the October–November harvest.
AgricultureWetter winter and spring rains are expected to improve wheat and rangeland conditions for the 2026/27 season, though excess moisture could delay planting in some flood-prone districts.
Below-normal rainfall and high evaporation from +3.4°C heat are likely to lower surface water and recharge in the Lake Chad basin, straining pastoral and household supplies.
Water & floodingRecharge of rivers, karezes and reservoirs is likely to improve, easing the multi-year drought deficit, but sudden heavy rainfall could trigger damaging flash floods.
Heat stress, water scarcity and disrupted water quality are expected to raise malnutrition, cholera and other waterborne disease risks, the concern driving hospital-level resilience planning.
HealthEl Niño-linked flooding is expected to increase waterborne and vector-borne disease risk, and the Q2 2026 GBV update flags heightened protection and nutrition concerns during climate shocks.
Heat-driven cooling demand and reduced hydropower inflows are likely to tighten electricity supply, already limited outside N'Djamena.
EnergyHigher water availability should support hydropower generation through 2027, while flood damage to transmission and small hydro infrastructure remains a risk.
Shrinking and warming water bodies in the Lake Chad basin are expected to reduce fish stocks and catch sizes for lakeside and riverine communities.
FisheriesInland fisheries and aquaculture could benefit from higher river and reservoir levels, though flood scouring may disrupt spawning habitats and small-scale fishing operations.