Mali
Mali's 2026 rainy season has delivered rainfall 61% below the 1991–2020 average, matching the canonical El Niño signal of drier conditions across the Sahel. Inter-agency ENSO reporting and humanitarian outlooks warn that vulnerable Sahelian countries face substantial drought risk through the peak July–September window, with knock-on effects for food security. WFP and partner analyses point to rising hunger and heat stress, while a September dust storm over Mali underscored how dry, dusty conditions are compounding the agricultural outlook.
Afghanistan
A strong El Niño, with global sea-surface temperature anomalies well above the +0.5°C threshold, is expected to be a key driver of Afghanistan's 2026/27 agricultural season. Articles project a wetter-than-normal winter and spring rainy season, which would favour wheat and rangeland recovery but also raise the risk of flash floods and waterborne disease during the December–March peak. Measured temperatures for July–October 2026 were +2.1°C above normal, and the dry-season rainfall picture is near average, so the decisive signal will be how the coming rains unfold.
Sector by sector
Millet, sorghum and cotton are expected to suffer sharply reduced yields as the shortened rainy season stresses crops during flowering and grain-fill.
AgricultureWetter winter and spring rains are expected to improve wheat and rangeland conditions for the 2026/27 season, though excess moisture could delay planting in some flood-prone districts.
River levels and surface reservoirs are likely to fall well below seasonal norms, straining irrigation and pastoral water points across the Sahel.
Water & floodingRecharge of rivers, karezes and reservoirs is likely to improve, easing the multi-year drought deficit, but sudden heavy rainfall could trigger damaging flash floods.
Drought-driven food insecurity and water scarcity are expected to worsen malnutrition, while heat stress and dust raise respiratory and waterborne disease risks.
HealthEl Niño-linked flooding is expected to increase waterborne and vector-borne disease risk, and the Q2 2026 GBV update flags heightened protection and nutrition concerns during climate shocks.
Reduced river discharge is likely to cut hydropower output, increasing reliance on thermal generation and raising electricity costs.
EnergyHigher water availability should support hydropower generation through 2027, while flood damage to transmission and small hydro infrastructure remains a risk.
Lower flows in the Niger River and its floodplain are expected to shrink fish habitat and reduce inland catches for riverine communities.
FisheriesInland fisheries and aquaculture could benefit from higher river and reservoir levels, though flood scouring may disrupt spawning habitats and small-scale fishing operations.