American Samoa
Score moved 6 → 5 (high impact → moderate impact). “Record-warm oceans are reshaping Pacific fisheries as voyagers reroute around a strengthening El Niño”
American Samoa sits inside a strengthening El Niño, with the ONI at +2.16 for JAS 2026, and the supplied coverage focuses on how that shift is already changing Pacific fisheries and voyaging plans. Measured conditions for 9 July–6 October 2026 show rainfall about 23% above normal and temperatures about 0.7°C below normal, a mixed signal that partly contradicts the canonical drier-than-normal El Niño pattern for the territory. The real test comes in the November–March peak window, when rainfall reliability, tuna availability and cyclone exposure typically shift most sharply.
271.3 mm vs 220.6 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 running about 23% above the 1991–2020 normal, but this falls in American Samoa's climatological dry season (normally under 20 mm), so the meaningful question is whether the coming wet-season rains arrive on time.
News source26.17°C mean vs 26.85°C normal
Mean temperature for the same window came in about 0.7°C below normal, a cooler-than-average signal that sits oddly against the record-warm ocean temperatures described in the articles.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes American Samoa drier. Observed rainfall is running +23% — against the canonical response; local factors are dominating.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (-14.3°, -170.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for American Samoa and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Dry-season cropping is currently on track, but a drier-than-normal November–March peak El Niño window could stress taro, banana and breadfruit production and delay planting.
With the dry season underway and no meaningful percentage anomaly, catchment and tank supplies should hold for now, though a weak wet season would tighten household water security by early 2027.
Warmer, more variable conditions are likely to expand mosquito breeding and vector-borne disease risk, with water scarcity and crop losses threatening nutrition and food security.
Hotter ocean and air conditions raise cooling demand at the territory's diesel-fired power plants, while any drought-driven low reservoir or stream levels would constrain hydro and increase fuel imports.
Warming surface waters are expected to shift tuna and pelagic distributions, altering nearshore catch composition and the fuel costs of reaching productive grounds.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how American Samoa responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A moderate-to-strong El Niño contributed to below-normal rainfall in the Samoan region and shifted regional voyaging and fishing routes, echoing the rerouting reported for Hokulea and Hikianalia.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño coincided with record global ocean warmth, disrupting Pacific tuna migration and prompting drought contingency planning in American Samoa.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought a markedly dry wet season to the Samoan region, with water shortages and reduced agricultural yields across the territory.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSFEMA Region 9 American Samoa Catastrophic Plan Story Map
The Warmest The Oceans Have Ever Been
El Niño Builds Over the Pacific as American Samoa Watches Its Fisheries and Coming Rains
American Samoa sits inside a strengthening El Niño, with the ONI at +2.16 for JAS 2026, and the supplied coverage focuses on how that shift is already changing Pacific fisheries and voyaging plans. Me
Hokulea, Hikianalia respond to developing El Nino pattern
Voyaging plans for Hokulea, Hikianalia change due to possible El Nino conditions
Nearby
Other countries in Polynesia