Tuvalu
Score moved 8 → 7 (severe impact → high impact). “A strong El Niño is loading Tuvalu's coming wet season — and the region's climate systems are about to be tested”
A regional El Niño snapshot published on 28 August 2026 places Tuvalu within a Pacific basin under a strong El Niño state, with ONI at +2.16 for July–September 2026, well above the +0.5 threshold. Measured conditions for 9 July–6 October 2026 show rainfall 117% above the 1991–2020 normal and mean temperatures +0.3°C above normal, matching the canonical wet El Niño signal for Tuvalu even though this window is the climatological dry season. Regional reporting also notes weather-related disruption to Pacific voyaging and mounting pressure on the Pacific's climate architecture, underscoring that the peak November–March impact period will test Tuvalu's water, food and health systems.
1088.9 mm vs 501.1 mm normal
Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran 117% above the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the canonical wet El Niño signal for Tuvalu even though this window falls in the climatological dry season.
News source28.59°C mean vs 28.24°C normal
Mean temperature for the same window was +0.3°C above normal, a modest warming consistent with the strong El Niño state (ONI +2.16 for JAS 2026).
El Niño typically makes Tuvalu wetter. Observed rainfall is running +117% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (-8.0°, 178.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Tuvalu and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Enhanced wet-season rainfall is expected to support pulaka and taro yields, but waterlogging, saltwater intrusion and root-crop disease could offset gains during the November–March peak.
Above-normal rainfall should recharge household rainwater tanks and freshwater lenses, though heavy downpours risk contamination and overflow losses on low-lying atolls.
Wetter, warmer conditions are likely to expand mosquito breeding and raise risks of dengue and diarrhoeal disease, with heat stress and nutrition pressures during the peak El Niño months.
Increased cloud cover and heavy rain could reduce solar output while storm damage to cables and panels raises diesel dependence and fuel costs.
Warmer ocean temperatures and shifted currents may alter tuna and reef-fish distribution, potentially disrupting nearshore catches and community food security.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Tuvalu responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño contributed to regional rainfall and temperature anomalies and disrupted Pacific shipping and voyaging schedules, including weather-related postponements of traditional canoe voyages to Tuvalu.
unsourced background2015-16
A very strong El Niño coincided with severe drought across much of the western and central Pacific, forcing water rationing in several atoll states and highlighting Tuvalu's vulnerability to rainfall swings.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought extreme rainfall variability and drought-to-flood swings across the Pacific, straining Tuvalu's freshwater lenses and subsistence food production.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
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