Samoa
Score moved 6 → 5 (high impact → moderate impact). “Drought risk climbs as El Niño builds across the South Pacific”
Samoa Observer reports that El Niño is raising drought risk for Samoa, while regional coverage notes South Pacific countries already dealing with dry conditions. The measured July–October window was near normal for rainfall (+2%) and slightly cool (-0.5°C), but that dry-season period carries little signal for the months ahead. With peak El Niño impact expected November–March, the coming wet season and its growing period are likely to arrive late and under-deliver on rain.
233.7 mm vs 230 mm normal
Measured rainfall for the July–October dry season was near normal at +2% versus the 1991–2020 baseline, but articles warn that El Niño is expected to suppress the coming wet-season rains.
News source26.41°C mean vs 26.95°C normal
Mean temperature for the same window ran 0.5°C below normal, a cooler-than-average signal that sits oddly against the warming usually associated with strong El Niño years.
El Niño typically makes Samoa drier. Observed rainfall is running +2% — too close to normal to call yet.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (-13.6°, -172.3°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Samoa and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Rain-fed taro, coconut and vegetable gardens face delayed planting and reduced yields if the wet season underperforms as forecast.
Household rainwater tanks and small catchment supplies are likely to come under strain if the November–March rains fail to recharge them.
Drier conditions can reduce water availability for sanitation and drinking, raising risks of waterborne disease and nutrition stress in vulnerable households.
Hydropower generation depends on wet-season inflows, so a weak rainy season could increase reliance on diesel-fuelled generation.
Nearshore and tuna fisheries may shift with warmer ocean conditions, altering catch locations and availability for coastal communities.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Samoa responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions returned, with Pacific island countries again monitoring rainfall deficits and water security through the wet season.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño contributed to drought conditions across the Pacific, stressing water supplies and agriculture in Samoa and neighbouring island states.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought pronounced drought to the South Pacific, with water rationing and crop losses reported across the region.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSPacific News Minute: South Pacific countries deal with drought conditions from El Niño
El Niño Lifts Drought Risk for Samoa as Wet Season Nears
Samoa Observer reports that El Niño is raising drought risk for Samoa, while regional coverage notes South Pacific countries already dealing with dry conditions. The measured July–October window was n
Nearby
Other countries in Polynesia