Angola
Narrative updated. “El Niño dryness could push southern Angola into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) by November”
El Niño conditions are expected to bring below-average rainfall to southern Angola, with FEWS NET projecting that dryness will drive parts of Cunene and Huíla into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes by November. The measured July–October window was near average for rainfall and about 0.3°C warmer than normal, but this falls in the climatological dry season, so the real risk lies in a delayed onset of the November–March rains. Combined with high input prices, the projected dryness threatens planting, pasture and water supplies, and has already been linked to drought-displaced Angolans facing abuses across the border in Namibia.
36.8 mm vs 30.2 mm normal
The July–October window falls in Angola's climatological dry season, so the measured near-average rainfall carries little signal; articles instead project El Niño-driven dryness that could delay the onset of the November–March rains in southern provinces.
News source22.13°C mean vs 21.85°C normal
Mean temperatures for July–October 2026 ran about 0.3°C above the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the background warming that amplifies El Niño-related heat stress on crops and livestock.
El Niño typically makes Angola drier. Observed rainfall is running +22% — against the canonical response; local factors are dominating.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (-12.5°, 18.5°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Angola and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Delayed and below-average rains are expected to shorten the growing season and cut cereal and pasture yields in southern provinces, with high input prices compounding the losses.
Reduced recharge of boreholes, dams and rivers in Cunene and Huíla is likely to strain both household and livestock water access during the lean season.
Food insecurity and water scarcity are expected to worsen malnutrition and raise the risk of waterborne disease, while drought-displaced populations face protection risks in transit.
Lower river flows and reservoir levels could reduce hydropower output, increasing reliance on costly thermal generation and raising the risk of load shedding.
Warmer coastal waters and altered upwelling associated with El Niño may shift fish stocks and reduce catches for artisanal fishing communities along the Namibe and Benguela coast.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Angola responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño-related dryness in southern Angola displaced communities across the border into Namibia, where Amnesty International reports they faced human rights abuses.
Source2015-16
Strong El Niño conditions contributed to drought across southern Africa, leaving millions of people in Angola and neighbouring countries food insecure and dependent on emergency assistance.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought severe drought to southern Angola, causing widespread crop failure and livestock losses and prompting large-scale humanitarian appeals.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSNamibia: Drought displaced Angolans face human rights abuses
Likely El Niño-induced dryness to lead to outcomes aligned with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in southern areas by November
El Niño Dryness Threatens Southern Angola With Crisis-Level Food Insecurity by November
El Niño conditions are expected to bring below-average rainfall to southern Angola, with FEWS NET projecting that dryness will drive parts of Cunene and Huíla into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes by Nov
Nearby
Neighbouring countries