Namibia
Score moved 7 → 6 . “Strong El Niño signals a drier rainy season ahead for Namibia, with planting and rangelands most exposed”
Namibia enters the 2026 El Niño season with a strong event in place, and preparedness alerts for Southern Africa point to below-normal rainfall for the coming November–March rainy season. The July–October window is the normal dry season, so the immediate concern is not current rainfall but the delayed onset of planting rains expected in November–December. Measured temperatures for the same window ran about +1.1°C above normal, with August 2026 recorded as the country's second-warmest August in 15 years at 1.3°C above the long-term average, compounding moisture stress on crops, livestock and water sources.
3.7 mm vs 6.6 mm normal — too little rain in this window for a % to mean anything
The July–October window is Namibia's climatological dry season, so no meaningful rainfall anomaly applies; the concern is the projected below-normal rainfall for the coming November–March rainy season under a strong El Niño.
News source19.7°C mean vs 18.56°C normal
Measured mean temperatures for July–October 2026 ran about +1.1°C above normal, consistent with the second-warmest August in 15 years reported at 18.1°C, or 1.3°C above the 1991–2020 average.
News sourceWith El Niño conditions in place, the November–December planting window is expected to be delayed and the December–February peak impact period could bring moisture stress to crops and rangeland.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (-22.0°, 17.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Namibia and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Delayed planting rains and below-normal seasonal rainfall are expected to cut crop yields and stress rangeland, hitting communal livestock producers hardest during the December–February peak impact period.
Reduced inflows to dams and boreholes are likely as the rainy season underperforms, tightening supply for Windhoek and southern towns dependent on stored surface water.
Heat stress, water scarcity and potential nutrition shortfalls during the December–February lean season raise risks of dehydration, food insecurity and waterborne disease.
Lower dam levels would constrain hydropower generation, particularly at Ruacana, increasing reliance on imported electricity and raising supply costs.
Warmer sea surface temperatures associated with El Niño may shift pelagic fish stocks and disrupt the Namibian hake and sardine fishery, though direct article evidence is limited.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Namibia responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions contributed to a significant mid-season dry spell across Southern Africa, with Namibia among countries declaring drought and mobilising relief for affected farmers.
unsourced background2015-16
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought severe drought to Namibia and Southern Africa, causing widespread crop failure, livestock losses and a regional humanitarian appeal.
unsourced background1997-98
A very strong El Niño contributed to drought conditions across Namibia, reducing cereal harvests and straining water supplies in central and southern regions.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSFAO and WFP Launch Joint Appeal Ahead of El Niño Threat
August 2026 ranks as Namibia’s second-warmest in 15 years Staff Reporter AUGUST 2026 was Namibia’s second-warmest August in the past 15 years, with an average surface air temperature of 18.1 °C, which was 1.3 °C above the 1991–2020 long-term ave
Using El Niño impact analysis to inform policy, early action and risk-informed planning in Southern Africa
Nearby
Neighbouring countries