Zambia
Narrative updated. “A strong El Niño is building as Zambia's recovery begins — and the rains may not arrive on time”
Zambia's fragile post-drought recovery is facing a fresh climate test as a strong El Niño develops, with the Southern Africa preparedness alert warning of suppressed and delayed rains across the region. The July–October window is Zambia's normal dry season, so rainfall is near average and temperatures are only about 0.1°C above normal, but the real risk lies in the November–March rainy season that drives planting. The African Union, Zambia and ACMAD have convened continental dialogue to strengthen early warning and climate services ahead of the 2026/27 El Niño peak.
9.2 mm vs 5.5 mm normal — too little rain in this window for a % to mean anything
The July–October window is Zambia's climatological dry season, so rainfall is near average by definition, but the articles warn the coming November–March rains are likely to be suppressed and delayed under a strong El Niño.
News source23.52°C mean vs 23.37°C normal
Measured mean temperature for the dry-season window was just +0.1°C above normal, though the articles project heat stress to build through the peak El Niño months of December to February.
Planting is expected to be pushed back from the usual November–December window, shortening the growing season and extending the December–February lean season for smallholders.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (-15.0°, 30.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Zambia and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Delayed and below-normal rains are expected to disrupt planting of maize and other staples, cutting yields and deepening food insecurity in the southern half of the country.
Reduced inflows to rivers, dams and boreholes are likely, straining irrigation and rural water supply as the dry season gives way to a weak rainy season.
A longer lean season is expected to worsen malnutrition, while water scarcity and heat stress could increase the spread of waterborne disease and heat-related illness.
Hydropower generation at Kariba is projected to come under renewed stress if inflows fall short, raising the risk of load shedding for households and industry.
Lower water levels in lakes and rivers are expected to shrink fish habitat and catch volumes, hitting the livelihoods of fishing communities along the Kafue, Zambezi and Kariba systems.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Zambia responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño-linked drought left Zambia's recovery fragile, with crop losses and power deficits that the current 2026/27 event now threatens to reverse.
unsourced background2015-16
A powerful El Niño contributed to one of southern Africa's worst droughts in decades, slashing Zambia's maize harvest and pushing Kariba reservoir levels to critical lows.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought severe drought and crop failure across southern Zambia, driving widespread food shortages and hydropower strain.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSZambia Braces for El Niño as Recovery Faces Delayed Rains and Drought Risk
Zambia's fragile post-drought recovery is facing a fresh climate test as a strong El Niño develops, with the Southern Africa preparedness alert warning of suppressed and delayed rains across the regio
The African Union Commission, Zambia, And Acmad Convene Continental Dialogue To Strengthen Africa's Preparedness For El Niño 2026/2027 Through Enhanced And Timely Weather And Climate Services
Nearby
Neighbouring countries