Mozambique
Narrative updated. “A super El Niño is forecast to squeeze Mozambique's rains just as planting begins”
Mozambique is listed among the countries at highest humanitarian risk from the ongoing super El Niño through 2027, with the southern and central regions expected to bear the brunt of drier conditions. Reanalysis for 9 July–6 October 2026 shows rainfall 29% below the 1991–2020 average, though this falls in the climatological dry season when totals are normally under 20 mm, so the real concern is the outlook for a delayed and below-normal November–March rainy season. Temperatures have so far tracked near normal at 0.0°C from average, but the peak El Niño impact is projected for December–February, coinciding with planting and the lean season.
36.2 mm vs 51 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall 29% below the 1991–2020 average for 9 July–6 October 2026, a dry-season window when totals are normally under 20 mm, so the meaningful signal is the outlook for a likely delayed and below-normal November–March rainy season.
News source23.92°C mean vs 23.92°C normal
Mean temperature for the same window was 0.0°C from normal, indicating no measurable warming signal so far even as El Niño conditions intensify.
El Niño typically makes Mozambique drier. Observed rainfall is running -29% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (-18.3°, 35.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Mozambique and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
A delayed and below-normal rainy season would likely cut maize and cereal yields in the south and centre, with planting in November–December at risk of failure.
Below-normal rains are expected to reduce river flows and dam recharge, tightening water availability for both urban supply and irrigation.
Food insecurity and malnutrition risks are expected to rise during the December–February lean season, alongside heightened waterborne disease risk where supplies dwindle.
Hydropower output, especially from Cahora Bassa, is likely to come under pressure if inflows remain below normal through the 2026–27 season.
Drier conditions and altered river discharge could affect inland fisheries and estuarine breeding grounds, while coastal stocks face uncertain shifts in ocean conditions.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Mozambique responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions brought below-normal rains and drought stress to parts of southern and central Mozambique, reinforcing food security concerns.
unsourced background2015-16
A powerful El Niño contributed to southern Africa's worst drought in decades, leaving millions in Mozambique in need of food assistance.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought severe drought to southern Mozambique, cutting harvests and worsening food insecurity across the region.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSWorld Vision Strengthen Community Disaster Risk Reduction capacity amid the super El Niño impact forecast in Southern Africa | Mozambique
Mozambique among countries at highest humanitarian risk from El Niño through 2027
Super El Niño Puts Mozambique on High Alert as Drier Season Looms
Mozambique is listed among the countries at highest humanitarian risk from the ongoing super El Niño through 2027, with the southern and central regions expected to bear the brunt of drier conditions.
Africa facing up to $20 billion economic hit from 'super' El Niño, AfDB climate chief warns
Nearby
Neighbouring countries