Eswatini
Narrative updated. “Strong El Niño points to a dry rainy season, delayed planting and a lean season that bites harder than usual”
Eswatini's press and regional humanitarian agencies are warning that the strong El Niño now in place is likely to bring below-normal rains over the November–March season, with drought and heat stress the dominant risks. The measured July–October window was actually slightly cooler than normal at -0.2°C and fell in the climatological dry season, so the real test lies ahead in the December–February peak, when the impact on maize and water supplies is expected to be greatest. Farmers are already being advised to expect delayed planting and to prepare for a lean season that could stretch household food stocks well into 2027.
114.7 mm vs 60.1 mm normal
The July–October 2026 window falls in Eswatini's climatological dry season, when normal rainfall is under 20 mm, so no meaningful percentage anomaly applies; the concern raised in the articles is the outlook for the coming November–March rains, which are expected to be below normal under the strong El Niño.
News source17.11°C mean vs 17.28°C normal
Mean temperature for 9 July to 6 October 2026 ran 0.2°C below the 1991–2020 normal, a cool anomaly that sits at odds with the heat and drought stress the articles associate with El Niño.
El Niño typically makes Eswatini drier. Observed rainfall is running +91% — against the canonical response; local factors are dominating.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (-26.5°, 31.5°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Eswatini and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Below-normal rains and a delayed start to planting are expected to cut maize and subsistence yields, with the December–February peak hitting crops at their most vulnerable stage.
Recharge of dams, boreholes and rivers is likely to fall short of normal, raising the prospect of tighter urban restrictions and longer queues at rural water points.
Drought-related water scarcity is expected to worsen diarrhoeal disease and nutrition outcomes, while heat stress raises risks for outdoor workers and the elderly.
Reduced inflows to hydropower schemes and higher cooling demand during heat spells could tighten electricity supply and increase reliance on imported power.
Lower river levels and warmer, shallower water in dams and rivers are expected to stress inland fish stocks and reduce catches for small-scale fishers.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Eswatini responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño drove a severe mid-season dry spell across Southern Africa, with Eswatini among the countries declaring drought and cereal production falling sharply.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño contributed to one of the worst droughts in decades in Southern Africa, leaving millions of people food insecure and prompting regional humanitarian appeals.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought severe drought and crop failure across Southern Africa, including Eswatini, and is widely cited as the benchmark for regional drought response planning.
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