Malawi
Score moved 7 → 6 . “A strong El Niño is building and Malawi's window to prepare is closing fast”
A strengthening El Niño, with global sea-surface anomalies well above the +0.5°C threshold, is expected to bring a drier-than-normal rainy season to Malawi. Articles from OCHA, IFPRI and World Vision warn of late onset, mid-season dry spells and heightened food insecurity through the December–February peak. Measured temperatures for the recent dry-season window ran 0.2°C below normal, but the canonical El Niño signal of suppressed rainfall remains the dominant concern for the coming agricultural season.
26.6 mm vs 10.3 mm normal — too little rain in this window for a % to mean anything
The July–October window is Malawi's climatological dry season, so rainfall is near average by definition, but articles warn the coming November–March rains are likely to be delayed and punctuated by mid-season dry spells under a strong El Niño.
News source18.92°C mean vs 19.15°C normal
Measured mean temperature for the dry-season window ran 0.2°C below normal, even as articles flag El Niño-driven heat stress risk for the December–February peak.
Planting is expected to start late and the December–February maize crop faces moisture stress, with the lean season likely to bite harder than usual.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (-13.5°, 34.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Malawi and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Late planting and mid-season dry spells are expected to cut maize yields, with food insecurity warnings already issued for vulnerable districts.
Reduced rains are likely to lower river flows and reservoir levels, straining irrigation and domestic supply in the dry season.
Nutritional status is likely to worsen with crop failure, while water scarcity may increase cholera and diarrhoeal disease risk.
Hydropower generation on the Shire is expected to be constrained by reduced inflows, raising load-shedding risk.
Lower lake levels and warmer waters could shift fish stocks and reduce catches in Lake Malawi and Shire River fisheries.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Malawi responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño contributed to dry spells and below-average harvests across Malawi and neighbouring countries.
unsourced background2015-16
El Niño-driven drought caused a regional food crisis, with Malawi among the countries declaring food insecurity emergencies.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought severe drought and widespread crop failure to southern Africa, including Malawi.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSNearby
Neighbouring countries