Anguilla
Narrative updated. “Strong El Niño heat is compounding landfill fire risk across the region as Anguilla eyes a drier wet season”
Regional reporting links extreme heat and a strong El Niño to heightened landfill fire concerns, a signal that fits Anguilla's measured +0.9°C temperature anomaly for July–October 2026. Rainfall over the same window came in 22% below the 1991–2020 normal, though this is climatologically Anguilla's dry season, so the more telling question is how the coming May–November rains behave. With the agricultural calendar still on schedule, a drier-than-normal wet season would put pressure on rain-fed crops, water storage and the November–January harvest.
159.4 mm vs 205.1 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall 22% below the 1991–2020 normal for 9 July–6 October 2026, a window that is climatologically dry, so the key concern is the outlook for the coming wet-season rains under a strong El Niño.
29.01°C mean vs 28.16°C normal
Mean temperatures for the same window ran +0.9°C above normal, consistent with the extreme-heat concerns raised in regional reporting on El Niño.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Anguilla drier. Observed rainfall is running -22% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (18.3°, -63.2°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Anguilla and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Rain-fed crops and livestock pasture face likely moisture stress if the wet season underperforms, with the June–October peak El Niño window and November–January harvest most exposed.
Below-normal wet-season rainfall would reduce catchment and cistern recharge, tightening domestic and agricultural water supplies through the following dry season.
Extreme heat raises heat-stress and dehydration risk, especially for outdoor workers and the elderly, while drier conditions can worsen respiratory irritation from landfill and bush fires.
Higher temperatures are expected to lift cooling demand and electricity load, while drier conditions raise wildfire and landfill-fire risk near power infrastructure.
Warmer coastal waters and heat stress on reefs may shift nearshore fish stocks and increase post-harvest spoilage risk for small-scale fishers.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Anguilla responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions again aligned with below-normal Caribbean rainfall and heat stress, reinforcing concerns over water storage and crop yields in the dry season that followed.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño contributed to regional drought and record warmth in the eastern Caribbean, with reduced rainfall and elevated fire risk affecting islands including Anguilla.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought markedly drier conditions to the eastern Caribbean, stressing rain-fed agriculture and domestic water supplies across the region.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSEl Niño Heat and Drier Signal Put Anguilla's Wet Season and Landfill Risk in Focus
Regional reporting links extreme heat and a strong El Niño to heightened landfill fire concerns, a signal that fits Anguilla's measured +0.9°C temperature anomaly for July–October 2026. Rainfall over
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