Jamaica
Narrative updated. “El Niño is here, the rains are late, and Jamaica's farmers are already recalculating”
Jamaica is now under a strengthening El Niño, with the ONI at +2.16 for July–September 2026 and articles warning of a 'super El Niño' and rising drought concerns. Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 came in 42% below the 1991–2020 normal while mean temperatures ran 1.0°C above normal, matching the canonical El Niño drying signal even as the same articles forecast a quieter Atlantic hurricane season. With peak El Niño impact falling in June–October, the coming wet-season rains are expected to be delayed and deficient, pushing planting back roughly a month and putting the November–January harvest at risk.
218.5 mm vs 373.6 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 at 42% below the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the canonical El Niño drying signal and with the drought concerns raised in the articles.
News source28.55°C mean vs 27.51°C normal
Mean temperature for the same window ran 1.0°C above normal, an anomaly that compounds evaporative stress on already moisture-starved soils.
El Niño typically makes Jamaica drier. Observed rainfall is running -42% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (18.3°, -77.5°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Jamaica and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Delayed and reduced wet-season rains are expected to push planting back about a month, cutting yields of rain-fed staples and raising irrigation demand for cash crops.
Below-normal rainfall and higher evaporation are likely to draw down reservoirs and catchment levels, increasing the risk of municipal restrictions before the next wet season.
Heat stress, water-scarcity-related hygiene risks and possible vector-borne disease shifts are the main concerns as temperatures run above normal and stored water becomes scarce.
Lower reservoir levels threaten hydropower output, while hotter-than-normal conditions are expected to lift household and commercial cooling demand.
Warmer coastal waters and reduced riverine runoff are expected to stress reef and nearshore stocks, while a quieter hurricane season may at least limit storm damage to boats and gear.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Jamaica responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño episode was associated with below-normal rainfall and drought declarations in parts of Jamaica, reinforcing the island's dry-phase sensitivity.
unsourced background2015-16
A powerful El Niño contributed to a prolonged drought that depleted reservoirs, forced water restrictions and hit rain-fed agriculture hard.
unsourced background1997-98
A very strong El Niño brought one of Jamaica's most severe droughts on record, with widespread crop losses and water rationing across the island.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSA ‘super El Niño’ could form later this year. Here’s how it would affect hurricane season.
Forecast calls for below-normal Atlantic hurricane season amid El Niño conditions
Jamaica monitoring El Niño development amid rising drought concerns
El Niño Tightens Its Grip: Jamaica Braces for a Late, Thin Wet Season
Jamaica is now under a strengthening El Niño, with the ONI at +2.16 for July–September 2026 and articles warning of a 'super El Niño' and rising drought concerns. Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 Octobe
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