Puerto Rico
Narrative updated. “Reservoirs are draining, crops are failing and rationing has begun — and El Niño has not yet peaked”
El Niño has intensified Puerto Rico's drought into a full water crisis, with rationing now under way and reservoirs falling through what should be the wettest stretch of the year. Reanalysis for 9 July–6 October 2026 shows rainfall 53% below the 1991–2020 normal and mean temperatures 1.2°C above normal, matching the canonical El Niño drying signal for the island. Reporting from the agricultural and fisheries sectors points to failed crops and empty nets before the event's peak, with the November–January harvest and the coming dry season now at risk.
206.3 mm vs 439.3 mm normal
Reanalysis for 9 July–6 October 2026 shows rainfall running 53% below the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the canonical El Niño drying signal and with the drought emergency and water rationing reported across the island.
News source29.01°C mean vs 27.82°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same window ran 1.2°C above normal, amplifying evaporation from reservoirs and crop stress during the peak El Niño impact period.
El Niño typically makes Puerto Rico drier. Observed rainfall is running -53% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (18.3°, -66.5°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Puerto Rico and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Failed crops and delayed planting are already reported, with the November–January harvest expected to suffer as the suppressed wet season leaves soils short of moisture.
Reservoir levels have fallen far enough that rationing has begun, and the December–April dry season is likely to start from a depleted baseline.
Heat stress from temperatures 1.2°C above normal, combined with reduced water availability for hygiene, raises risks of dehydration and waterborne and vector-borne disease.
Hydropower generation is likely to be constrained by low reservoir storage, increasing reliance on fossil-fuel generation during the drought.
Fishers report empty nets as warmer, drier conditions disrupt coastal and nearshore fish stocks ahead of the event's peak.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Puerto Rico responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions again produced below-normal rainfall and drought declarations in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, echoing the pattern now intensifying in 2026.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño contributed to severe drought across Puerto Rico, with significant agricultural losses and mandatory water rationing in several municipalities.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought pronounced drying to the eastern Caribbean, straining Puerto Rico's reservoirs and prompting water-use restrictions.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSDrought Update for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands | July 23, 2026
What a ‘Super’ El Niño Means for the Planet
What you need to know about the water crisis in Puerto Rico
Before its peak, El Nino brings failed crops and empty fishing nets
El Niño Tightens Its Grip: Puerto Rico Enters Water Rationing as Drought Deepens
El Niño has intensified Puerto Rico's drought into a full water crisis, with rationing now under way and reservoirs falling through what should be the wettest stretch of the year. Reanalysis for 9 Jul
Nearby
Other countries in Caribbean