Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
Narrative updated. “A super El Niño is brewing and SVG's rains are already running 60% short”
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is in the grip of a strengthening El Niño, with the ONI at +2.16 and forecasters warning it could become the strongest this century. Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 came in about 60% below the 1991–2020 normal while mean temperatures ran 0.7°C above normal, matching the canonical dry signal for the eastern Caribbean. With the wet season already underperforming and the June–October peak impact window now closing, the coming rains are expected to be delayed and the November–January harvest pushed back.
172.3 mm vs 432.8 mm normal
Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran about 60% below the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the canonical El Niño drying signal and with warnings that the coming wet season rains may arrive late or underperform.
News source28.79°C mean vs 28.11°C normal
Mean temperatures for the same window were about 0.7°C above normal, in line with the global warmth reported in the August 2026 Temperature Update and the strong ONI of +2.16.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Saint Vincent and the Grenadines drier. Observed rainfall is running -60% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (13.3°, -61.2°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Delayed wet-season planting and a shortened growing window are expected to cut yields of root crops, vegetables and tree crops, with knock-on losses for the November–January harvest.
With rainfall 60% below normal, catchment recharge and reservoir levels are likely to fall, raising the prospect of water rationing in Kingstown and rural parishes.
Hotter, drier conditions are expected to raise heat stress, respiratory irritation from dust, and waterborne and vector-borne disease risks as water quality deteriorates.
Lower reservoir levels threaten hydropower output while hotter conditions drive up cooling demand, increasing reliance on imported fuel for generation.
Warmer coastal waters and rougher dry-season seas may displace pelagic stocks and shorten safe fishing days, squeezing the livelihoods of Vincentian fishers.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Saint Vincent and the Grenadines responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño contributed to below-normal rainfall and heat stress across the Windward Islands, stressing water supplies and smallholder farms in SVG.
unsourced background2015-16
A very strong El Niño produced one of the driest Caribbean dry seasons in decades, forcing water restrictions and reducing agricultural output in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought severe drought and crop losses across the eastern Caribbean, with SVG among the islands reporting acute water shortages.
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