Antigua and Barbuda
Narrative updated. “El Niño is already drying out Antigua and Barbuda — and the worst may be yet to come”
A strengthening El Niño, with ocean temperatures well past the +0.5°C threshold, is expected to keep Antigua and Barbuda drier than normal through the peak June–October impact window. Measured conditions already show rainfall about 24% below the 1991–2020 average and temperatures roughly 0.8°C above normal, and experts warn the drought poses a direct threat to national food security. The coming wet-season rains are likely to arrive late or underperform, delaying planting and putting the November–January harvest, water reserves and nearshore fisheries at risk.
288 mm vs 380.1 mm normal
Measured rainfall for July–October 2026 ran about 24% below the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the canonical El Niño drying signal for Antigua and Barbuda, though this window falls in the climatological dry season when totals are already under 20 mm and the more meaningful concern is a delayed or suppressed start to the coming rains.
News source28.91°C mean vs 28.14°C normal
Mean temperatures for the same July–October window came in about 0.8°C above normal, and articles warn that a strong El Niño could push regional and global temperatures higher still.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Antigua and Barbuda drier. Observed rainfall is running -24% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (17.1°, -61.8°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Antigua and Barbuda and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Below-normal rains and a delayed wet season are expected to cut yields of rain-fed crops and push back planting, with knock-on effects for the November–January harvest and food security.
A drier-than-normal wet season would limit reservoir and catchment recharge, raising the likelihood of tighter water restrictions later in the year.
Prolonged heat and drought are expected to increase heat stress, respiratory illness from dust and wildfire smoke, and nutrition risks as local food supplies tighten.
Hotter, drier conditions are expected to lift cooling demand and strain diesel-based generation, while low reservoir levels could reduce hydropower and desalination efficiency.
Warmer ocean temperatures and shifting currents under a strong El Niño are likely to displace pelagic fish stocks and stress nearshore reef and conch fisheries.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Antigua and Barbuda responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño amplified regional heat and drought, stressing agriculture and water supplies across the eastern Caribbean and pushing global temperatures to record highs.
unsourced background2015-16
A powerful El Niño contributed to one of the driest periods in Caribbean records, with Antigua and Barbuda among the islands declaring water emergencies and imposing restrictions.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought severe drought and water rationing across the eastern Caribbean, sharply reducing crop yields in Antigua and Barbuda.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSHow This Year’s Intensifying El Niño Will Affect Marine Environments and the Fisheries Dependent on Them
UN warns possibly strong El Nino could push global temperatures higher
El Nino is here and scientists fear it’ll be big, bad and costly with heat, floods, droughts, fires
El Niño brings double threat to A&B this hurricane season
El Niño Tightens Its Grip: Antigua and Barbuda Braces for Drought, Heat and a Delayed Harvest
A strengthening El Niño, with ocean temperatures well past the +0.5°C threshold, is expected to keep Antigua and Barbuda drier than normal through the peak June–October impact window. Measured conditi
Nearby
Other countries in Caribbean