Bahamas
Score moved 7 → 6 . “A strong El Niño is steering the Bahamas toward a quieter hurricane season but a thirstier wet season”
A strong El Niño, with ONI at +2.16, is expected to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity and has already coincided with a measured rainfall deficit of about 27% and temperatures 1.2°C above normal for July–October 2026. Articles from Yale Climate Connections, The Weather Channel and DW.com broadly agree that El Niño shifts storm tracks and rainfall patterns, though the canonical Bahamas signal of drier conditions is the dominant theme. With the wet season and harvest on schedule, the coming months will test water reserves and rain-fed agriculture rather than disrupt the planting calendar.
173.1 mm vs 238.6 mm normal
Measured rainfall for July–October 2026 ran about 27% below the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the canonical El Niño drying signal for the Bahamas, though this window falls in the climatological dry season when totals are normally under 20 mm.
29.83°C mean vs 28.59°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same July–October window measured +1.2°C above normal, adding heat stress on top of the suppressed rainfall.
El Niño typically makes Bahamas drier. Observed rainfall is running -27% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (24.3°, -76.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Bahamas and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Below-normal wet-season rainfall could reduce soil moisture and yields for rain-fed crops, though the planting and harvest calendar remains on schedule.
A 27% rainfall deficit during the dry season window may pressure reservoirs and groundwater recharge ahead of the next wet season.
Above-normal temperatures raise heat stress risk, and drier conditions could affect water quality and vector-borne disease patterns.
A quieter hurricane season lowers storm-related outage risk, while hotter conditions may nudge up cooling demand.
Fewer hurricanes reduce damage risk to boats and coastal infrastructure, but warmer-than-normal water (+1.2°C) could shift fish distributions.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Bahamas responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño contributed to a quieter-than-average Atlantic hurricane season and drier conditions across parts of the Bahamas.
unsourced background2015-16
One of the strongest El Niño events on record coincided with reduced Caribbean hurricane landfalls and regional rainfall deficits.
unsourced background1997-98
A very strong El Niño suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity and brought drier-than-normal conditions to parts of the Caribbean, including the Bahamas.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSWhy El Nino can fuel storms in one region and suppress them in others
Hurricane-Season Caribbean Travel Less Risky This Year Due To El Niño
How El Niño is playing a role in Hurricane Isaias
Strong El Niño Brings Quieter Storms but Drier Skies to the Bahamas
A strong El Niño, with ONI at +2.16, is expected to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity and has already coincided with a measured rainfall deficit of about 27% and temperatures 1.2°C above normal for
2026 Atlantic hurricane season begins: A strong El Niño could bring fewer storms
Nearby
Other countries in Caribbean