Caribbean Netherlands
Narrative updated. “A record-strength El Niño is suppressing Caribbean rainfall and hurricane activity — what it means for islands already running 62% dry”
El Niño intensified through 2026 to near-record strength, with articles reporting a 75% chance it becomes the strongest event since 1950 and describing it as breaching the "super" threshold. For Caribbean Netherlands this translates into the canonical drying signal: reanalysis shows rainfall 62% below the 1991–2020 normal for 9 July to 6 October 2026, with temperatures 0.4°C above normal, while the same El Niño is expected to reduce Atlantic hurricane activity. The agricultural calendar remains on schedule, but the suppressed wet-season rainfall raises concerns for water storage, rain-fed agriculture and nearshore fisheries as the November–January harvest approaches.
59 mm vs 153.9 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall across Caribbean Netherlands from 9 July to 6 October 2026 ran 62% below the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the canonical El Niño drying signal for the region, though the window falls in the climatological dry season when totals are normally under 20 mm and the percentage is less meaningful than the outlook for the coming wet season.
28.57°C mean vs 28.14°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same window ran 0.4°C above normal, a modest warm anomaly that aligns with the intensifying El Niño described in the articles rather than the more extreme continental warming they highlight for North America.
El Niño typically makes Caribbean Netherlands drier. Observed rainfall is running -62% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (12.2°, -68.3°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Caribbean Netherlands and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Rain-fed crops and livestock pasture on Bonaire, Saba and St. Eustatius face moisture stress from a wet season running far below normal, though the harvest calendar remains on schedule.
Cisterns and desalination-fed storage on the islands are likely to recharge poorly if the suppressed rainfall persists, raising the risk of tighter water rationing into the dry season.
Warmer-than-normal conditions and water scarcity are expected to increase heat stress and strain freshwater availability for drinking and sanitation, with knock-on nutrition risks.
Reduced hurricane activity lowers storm-damage risk to the islands' grids, but hotter, drier conditions are expected to lift cooling demand and fuel consumption.
The article on global shipping and fish behaviour indicates El Niño shifts marine food webs, which could push pelagic species away from customary nearshore fishing grounds around the islands.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Caribbean Netherlands responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño contributed to suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity and below-normal Caribbean rainfall, consistent with the drying pattern now being measured in Caribbean Netherlands.
unsourced background2015-16
A powerful El Niño coincided with severe regional drought and coral bleaching in the Caribbean, with islands including the BES territories reporting acute water shortages.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought pronounced drought to the southern Caribbean, stressing water supplies and rain-fed agriculture across the Netherlands Antilles.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
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This article is republished from The Conversation, an independent and nonprofit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts. Steven Paton is a Research Biologist at the Smithsonian .
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