Chile
Narrative updated. “A super El Niño is rewriting Chile's winter — and the water is still rising”
A powerful El Niño has driven torrential rains across central Chile, with weeklong storms in July killing at least 10 people and triggering flash floods, while residents were airlifted to safety as rains returned in early October. Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran +536% above the 1991–2020 normal, and mean temperatures were +1.4°C above normal, matching the canonical wet El Niño signal for the country. Forecasters warn the event may strengthen further, keeping the risk of flooding, landslides and marine heat along the northern coast elevated through the coming months.
199.1 mm vs 31.3 mm normal
Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran +536% above the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the canonical wet El Niño signal and with the deadly storms and flash floods reported across central Chile in July and October.
News source15.59°C mean vs 14.15°C normal
Mean temperature for the same window was +1.4°C above normal, in line with the marine heat and warm anomalies El Niño typically brings to Chile's northern coast.
El Niño typically makes Chile wetter. Observed rainfall is running +536% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (-30.0°, -71.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Chile and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Flooding and waterlogged soils in central valleys threaten winter crops and may delay spring planting, though the wet winter could recharge irrigation reserves for the fruit harvest.
Reservoirs and rivers are being replenished by the heaviest rains in years, but flash floods and landslides are damaging infrastructure and contaminating water supplies.
Floodwaters raise the risk of waterborne disease and displacement-related health problems, with at least 10 deaths already reported and more storm impacts expected.
Heavy rains are boosting hydropower generation and reservoir levels, easing drought-driven supply concerns, while storm damage to transmission lines poses local outage risks.
Marine heat along Chile's northern coast, a classic El Niño signal, is expected to push fish stocks poleward and disrupt artisanal and industrial catches.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Chile responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño contributed to heavy winter rains and flooding in central Chile, following years of drought.
unsourced background2015-16
One of the strongest El Niño events on record produced heavy rains and flooding in northern and central Chile, with significant infrastructure losses.
unsourced background1997-98
A very strong El Niño brought extreme rainfall and severe flooding to central Chile, causing widespread damage and casualties.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSA very strong El Niño may be approaching. Here’s what it could mean for the world’s weather
Weeklong rainstorms in Chile blamed on El Nino kill at least 10 and trigger flash floods
Residents airlifted to safety in central Chile as El Niño blamed for torrential rains
Chile Faces El Niño Fury as Deadly Storms Close In
Nearby
Neighbouring countries