Bolivia
Narrative updated. “Bolivia's dry season masks the real test: what the coming rains will bring under a record El Niño”
Bolivia is entering the peak window of a record-strength El Niño, with anticipatory-action programmes and health-preparedness efforts scaling up across Latin America. The canonical signal for the country is mixed — Altiplano drought alongside lowland flooding — and the articles warn that January–April will be the decisive period for both. Measured conditions for July–October show a dry-season baseline with temperatures only about +0.2°C above normal, so the real risk lies in the forecast for the December–April rains rather than in the past quarter.
176.8 mm vs 56.9 mm normal
The July–October window is Bolivia's climatological dry season, so the measured +211% rainfall anomaly reflects near-zero baseline totals rather than a meaningful surplus, and attention now turns to the expected onset of the December–April rainy season under a strong El Niño.
25.32°C mean vs 25.15°C normal
Mean temperatures for July–October 2026 ran about +0.2°C above the 1991–2020 normal, a modest warm signal consistent with the strong El Niño state described in the articles.
Highland planting (September–November) is proceeding on schedule, but the articles warn that the peak El Niño impact in January–April could bring drought stress to the Altiplano and excess moisture to lowland cropping zones.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (-17.0°, -65.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Bolivia and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Highland planting is on schedule, but the January–April peak could cut Altiplano harvests while waterlogging lowland fields.
Altiplano reservoirs and Andean recharge zones are expected to face drought stress, while lowland basins risk flash flooding.
PAHO warns of heightened disease, heat-stress and nutrition risks, particularly for highland and flood-exposed communities.
Hydropower output is expected to be squeezed by reduced Andean runoff even as flood risk rises in the lowlands.
Warming waters and altered river flows are likely to disrupt freshwater fisheries that underpin Amazon and Pantanal livelihoods.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Bolivia responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions again produced mixed impacts, with drought stress in the Altiplano and excess rainfall in lowland departments.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño contributed to drought conditions in the highlands and flooding in the eastern lowlands, straining food and water security.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niños on record brought severe Altiplano drought and widespread lowland flooding to Bolivia, disrupting agriculture and water supplies.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSBolivia braces for a mixed El Niño blow: Altiplano drought, lowland floods
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Nearby
Neighbouring countries