Paraguay
Narrative updated. “Paraguay's rivers are already running high as a record-strength El Niño builds toward its October–February peak”
Paraguay is bracing for a strong to record-strength El Niño, with national reporting focused on storms, rising flood risk and the country's preparedness for the October–February peak. Regional coverage from Reuters and The Western Producer frames the event as a major test for Latin America's food-exporting economies, with Paraguay's soy and grain corridor among the most exposed. UNICEF warns that at least 25.8 million children across Latin America and the Caribbean face El Niño-related drought and flood hazards, underscoring the humanitarian dimension of the same climate signal.
220.6 mm vs 129.3 mm normal
Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran 71% above the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the canonical wet El Niño signal and with articles warning of storms and rising flood risk on Paraguay's rivers.
News source24.6°C mean vs 22.32°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same window were 2.3°C above normal, an anomaly consistent with the record-strength 'super El Niño' conditions described in the supplied coverage.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Paraguay wetter. Observed rainfall is running +71% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (-23.0°, -58.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Paraguay and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Above-normal rainfall should favour summer crop planting and early development, but waterlogged fields and flood damage in low-lying areas could cut yields in the Paraguay and Paraná basins.
River levels on the Paraguay and Paraná are expected to rise, raising flood risk in riverside communities while improving reservoir and soil-moisture recharge after dry-season deficits.
Flooding raises risks of waterborne and vector-borne disease, displacement and heat stress, with children and riverside populations identified as particularly vulnerable.
Increased inflows to Itaipú and Yacyretá should support strong hydropower generation, reducing reliance on thermal backup during the peak El Niño months.
Higher river flows and expanded floodplain habitat typically benefit fish spawning, though sudden flood pulses can disrupt artisanal fishing operations and market access.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Paraguay responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions contributed to above-normal rainfall and flood episodes in the region, reinforcing Paraguay's exposure to wet-phase ENSO impacts.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño produced significant flooding in the Paraguay-Paraná basin, with agricultural losses and displacement in low-lying areas of the country.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought heavy rainfall and major flooding along the Paraguay and Paraná rivers, disrupting transport, agriculture and riverside communities.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSHow will Latin America's super El Niño affect the top food-exporting region?
Paraguay Braces for Record El Niño as Rivers Rise and Flood Risk Climbs
Paraguay is bracing for a strong to record-strength El Niño, with national reporting focused on storms, rising flood risk and the country's preparedness for the October–February peak. Regional coverag
How will El Nino affect Latin American farming?
A Super El Niño Is Increasingly Likely, And It Could Be Record Strong
Nearby
Neighbouring countries