Argentina
Score moved 8 → 7 (severe impact → high impact). “A strong El Niño is loading Argentina's grain belt with rain — and its gas fields with export upside”
A strong El Niño, with ONI at +2.16 for JAS 2026, is expected to bring wetter-than-normal conditions to Argentina's Pampas, a signal experts quoted by Reuters say should help rather than hurt the country's crops. Measured conditions already show the pattern: rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran +139% of the 1991–2020 normal, though that window is Argentina's climatological dry season, and mean temperatures ran +1.7°C above normal. Beyond agriculture, analysts cited by Pipeline and Gas Journal see El Niño boosting Argentine gas exports to Brazil, while IFRC and Carbon Brief coverage frames the event as a global risk that is largely favourable for Argentina's farm and energy sectors.
206.2 mm vs 86.3 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall at +139% of the 1991–2020 normal for 9 July–6 October 2026, though this falls in Argentina's climatological dry season (normally under 20 mm), so the key signal is the outlook for the coming spring and summer rains, which El Niño typically makes wetter across the Pampas.
News source12.91°C mean vs 11.19°C normal
Mean temperature for the same window ran +1.7°C above normal, consistent with the strong El Niño state (ONI +2.16 for JAS 2026) and with the warmer-than-average conditions the articles associate with this event.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Argentina wetter. Observed rainfall is running +139% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (-34.0°, -64.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Argentina and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
El Niño's wetter signal is expected to favour summer crop planting from October and support strong yields across the Pampas, with experts saying the event is likely to help Argentine crops.
Enhanced spring and summer rainfall should recharge soil moisture and reservoirs after the dry-season window, though heavy episodes could bring localized flooding in low-lying Pampas areas.
Warmer-than-normal temperatures (+1.7°C measured) and wetter conditions may expand the range of mosquito-borne disease and increase heat stress in northern and central provinces.
Analysts cited by Pipeline and Gas Journal expect El Niño-driven demand and hydrological conditions to support higher Argentine gas exports to Brazil.
Warmer coastal waters and shifted currents associated with a strong El Niño may alter the distribution of key species in the South Atlantic, with effects on hake and squid catches still uncertain.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Argentina responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions helped end Argentina's severe drought, restoring soil moisture and boosting soybean and corn production in the following season.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño produced above-normal rainfall across central Argentina, supporting agriculture but causing flooding in some Pampas districts.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought very wet conditions to the Pampas, contributing to strong crop yields alongside localized flooding.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSEl Niño Could Boost Argentina Gas Exports to Brazil, OLACDE Says
An El Nino South America Climate to Develop in 2026!
The 2026 'El Niño': How are we preparing for its impact on Latin America and the Caribbean?
Explainer: How the ‘super El Niño’ will reshape the world’s weather
Strong El Niño Points to a Wetter, Warmer Argentina — and a Boost for Crops and Gas Exports
A strong El Niño, with ONI at +2.16, is expected to bring wetter-than-normal conditions to Argentina through the peak October–February impact period, and Reuters reports experts see the event as a net
Nearby
Neighbouring countries