Brazil
Narrative updated. “Porto Alegre braces for floods while the Amazon and Northeast dry out — Brazil's split-screen El Niño”
Brazil is facing a split-screen El Niño, with flood-hit Porto Alegre bracing for another deluge while central and northern regions slide toward drought through September–December. Reanalysis for 9 July–6 October 2026 shows rainfall 28% below the 1991–2020 normal and temperatures 2.0°C above normal, though that window is the climatological dry season, so the real test is the coming rainy season under an ONI of +2.16. Coffee growers are reported to be more resilient than in past events, but soy and maize planting, hydropower reservoirs, and Northeast water supplies remain exposed as the peak November–February impact approaches.
99.3 mm vs 138.5 mm normal
Reanalysis for 9 July–6 October 2026 shows rainfall 28% below the 1991–2020 normal, though this window is Brazil's climatological dry season, so the more meaningful signal is the forecast for the coming rains: central and northern Brazil are expected to stay dry while Southeast Brazil faces flood risk through September–December.
News source29.82°C mean vs 27.85°C normal
Mean temperatures for the same window ran 2.0°C above normal, consistent with the strong El Niño (ONI +2.16) described in the articles as a 'super El Niño' reshaping global weather.
News sourceWith peak El Niño impact expected November–February, soy and maize planting (September–December) is likely to be delayed or staggered in drought-hit central and northern Brazil, while excess rain in the Southeast threatens waterlogged fields and disrupted harvest logistics.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (-10.0°, -55.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Brazil and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Coffee crops are described as more resilient, but soy and maize planting in central and northern Brazil is likely to be delayed by drought while Southeast fields risk waterlogging and harvest disruption.
Central and northern Brazil are expected to see worsening drought and falling reservoir levels, while Southeast Brazil faces flood alerts that could overwhelm urban drainage and water infrastructure.
Flooding in the South raises waterborne disease and displacement risks, while heat and drought in the North and Northeast are expected to worsen heat stress, respiratory illness from fires, and food insecurity.
Hydropower reservoirs in the drought-hit Centre-South and North are expected to draw down, raising reliance on thermal generation and pushing up electricity costs during the peak El Niño months.
Drought-driven low flows in Amazon rivers are likely to strand fishing communities and disrupt riverine fish migration, while southern floodwaters can damage coastal and estuarine fishing grounds.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Brazil responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño-amplified rains contributed to catastrophic flooding in Rio Grande do Sul, including Porto Alegre, the event residents now fear repeating as the city braces for another deluge.
Source2015-16
A strong El Niño intensified Northeast drought and Amazon dryness while contributing to heavy rainfall and flooding in southern Brazil, foreshadowing the current north-dry/south-wet split.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought severe drought to the Amazon and Northeast and heavy rain to southern Brazil, a pattern the current event is expected to echo.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSEvolving Central/North Brazil Drought/Flood Rain Southeast Brazil ALERT for SEP-DEC 2026
‘Everyone is scared’: flood-hit Porto Alegre braces for another El Niño
World must look to the past to prepare for likely unprecedented El Niño
Super El Niño Splits Brazil: Floods Loom in the South as the Amazon and Northeast Dry Out
Brazil is facing a split-screen El Niño, with flood-hit Porto Alegre bracing for another deluge while central and northern regions slide toward drought through September–December. Reanalysis for 9 Jul
Nearby
Neighbouring countries