Guyana
Score moved 8 → 7 (severe impact → high impact). “El Niño is already squeezing Guyana's rains and power grid — and the driest months are still ahead”
Guyana is facing a drier, hotter 2026 as a strong El Niño, with ONI at +2.16, suppresses rainfall across the region. Reanalysis for 9 July–6 October 2026 shows rainfall 53% below the 1991–2020 normal and temperatures 0.6°C above normal, though that window is climatologically dry, so the real risk lies in the delayed onset of the coming rains. Articles report record electricity demand, official advisories urging farmers to prepare, and warnings that the long dry spell could persist into early next year.
210.4 mm vs 445.2 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall 53% below the 1991–2020 normal for 9 July–6 October 2026, a window that is climatologically dry, so the key concern is the outlook for the coming rains, which articles expect to be suppressed and delayed.
News source26.26°C mean vs 25.7°C normal
Mean temperatures ran 0.6°C above normal during the same window, consistent with article warnings of a hotter-than-usual El Niño year for Guyana.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Guyana drier. Observed rainfall is running -53% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (5.0°, -59.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Guyana and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Farmers are being urged to prepare for a prolonged dry spell that could delay planting and cut yields into early 2027.
Below-normal rainfall is expected to reduce river levels and reservoir recharge, straining domestic and irrigation supplies.
Heat stress and reduced water availability are likely to worsen dehydration, nutrition and waterborne disease risks.
Record electricity demand driven by El Niño heat is prompting Guyana to boost power supply and could raise costs.
Hotter, drier conditions may stress inland and coastal fish stocks and disrupt fishing schedules as water levels fall.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Guyana responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions contributed to drier-than-usual weather in Guyana, with farmers advised to prepare for reduced rainfall.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño produced prolonged dry conditions across Guyana, stressing agriculture and pushing up electricity demand for cooling.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought severe drought to Guyana, cutting rice and sugar output and triggering water rationing.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSIntersecting Global and Regional Shocks: Implications of the Middle East Crisis and El Niño for Food Security in the Caribbean, April 2026
Are we heading towards a Super El Niño in 2026?
El Niño Tightens Grip on Guyana: Drier, Hotter Months Ahead as Rains Delay
Guyana is facing a drier, hotter 2026 as a strong El Niño, with ONI at +2.16, suppresses rainfall across the region. Reanalysis for 9 July–6 October 2026 shows rainfall 53% below the 1991–2020 normal
Guyana taking steps to boost power supply as El Niño drives record electricity demand
Long dry spell from El Nino could continue into early next year; Farmers urged to be prepared
Nearby
Neighbouring countries