Suriname
Narrative updated. “Suriname's coming rains are on the line as a strengthening El Niño warms Caribbean waters”
A strengthening El Niño, with ONI at +2.16, is expected to keep Suriname drier than normal through the peak-impact window of December to March, threatening the April–May main planting season. Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 was 39% below the 1991–2020 normal, though that window is the climatological dry season when totals are normally under 20 mm, so the meaningful signal is the outlook for the coming April–November rains. CariCOF also warns that Caribbean waters are steadily warming, while regional food-security analyses flag El Niño as a compounding risk alongside global shocks.
220.6 mm vs 361.3 mm normal
Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran 39% below the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the canonical El Niño drying signal for Suriname, though this window falls in the climatological dry season when totals are normally under 20 mm and no percentage anomaly is meaningful — the real concern is the outlook for the coming April–November rains.
News source25.31°C mean vs 25.19°C normal
Mean temperature for the same window was just +0.1°C above normal, far milder than the strong ONI of +2.16 would suggest, indicating that warming so far has been modest even as CariCOF reports steadily warming Caribbean waters.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Suriname drier. Observed rainfall is running -39% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (4.0°, -56.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Suriname and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Drier-than-normal rains projected for the April–November season could delay or shrink the April–May main planting and reduce rice and vegetable yields.
Below-normal rainfall is likely to lower river and reservoir levels, straining drinking-water supply and inland navigation during the December–March peak.
Drier conditions and heat stress may worsen nutrition and waterborne disease risks, particularly for interior and riverine communities.
Reduced river flows could cut hydropower output at the Brokopondo reservoir, increasing reliance on thermal generation and raising costs.
Warmer coastal waters and shifting currents may push fish stocks offshore, raising fuel costs and reducing catch for artisanal fishers.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Suriname responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions contributed to below-normal rainfall and agricultural stress in Suriname and neighbouring countries.
unsourced background2015-16
A very strong El Niño produced pronounced regional drought, low river levels and water restrictions across the Guianas and wider Caribbean.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought severe drought and crop losses across the Caribbean and northern South America, including Suriname.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSStrengthening El Niño Puts Suriname's Coming Rainy Season and Main Crop at Risk
A strengthening El Niño, with ONI at +2.16, is expected to keep Suriname drier than normal through the peak-impact window of December to March, threatening the April–May main planting season. Measured
Guatemala to provide food aid as El Niño causes severe drought
Nearby
Neighbouring countries