Venezuela
Narrative updated. “Guri reservoir levels and grid stability are back in the spotlight as a strong El Niño builds”
A strengthening El Niño, with the ONI at +2.16, is expected to bring drier-than-normal conditions to Venezuela and intensify pressure on the Guri hydropower system that already forces rolling power and water cuts. Reuters reports that Venezuelans are bracing for more severe electricity and water rationing, while IOM warns that families still displaced by the earthquake face compounded risk from the climate shock. FAO and WFP have launched a joint appeal covering 8.8 million people across the region, and IFRC is urging Latin American and Caribbean governments to pre-position resources before the December–March peak.
566.9 mm vs 634.7 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall 11% below the 1991–2020 normal for 9 July–6 October 2026, a window that falls in Venezuela's climatological dry season, so the meaningful signal is the outlook for the coming rainy season rather than the percentage itself.
News source27.33°C mean vs 26.46°C normal
Mean temperatures ran 0.9°C above normal over the same window, consistent with the strong El Niño (ONI +2.16) described in the articles.
El Niño typically makes Venezuela drier. Observed rainfall is running -11% — too close to normal to call yet.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (8.0°, -66.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Venezuela and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Drier conditions expected from December through March are likely to stress rain-fed maize, rice and plantain, with irrigation-dependent llanos producers most exposed.
Reservoir inflows, including the Guri system, are projected to decline, extending and deepening the household water rationing already reported.
Heat stress, waterborne disease from interrupted supply, and worsening food insecurity among displaced and low-income households are the main expected health pressures.
Hydropower generation, which supplies the bulk of Venezuela's electricity, faces renewed shortfalls, raising the likelihood of longer and more frequent blackouts.
Warmer coastal waters and reduced river discharge may shift pelagic stocks and disrupt artisanal fishing along the Caribbean coast and Orinoco delta.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Venezuela responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions aggravated rainfall deficits in northern South America, adding to existing stress on Venezuelan water and power systems.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño coincided with acute drought and reservoir depletion, forcing extended electricity rationing and water shortages across major cities.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought severe drought to northern Venezuela and contributed to a major hydropower crisis at Guri, prompting nationwide rationing.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSBracing for El Niño: FAO and WFP launch joint appeal to protect 8.8 million people from extreme weather events
Strong El Niño Builds as Venezuela Braces for Deeper Power and Water Rationing
A strengthening El Niño, with the ONI at +2.16, is expected to bring drier-than-normal conditions to Venezuela and intensify pressure on the Guri hydropower system that already forces rolling power an
Beaten Venezuelans brace for more severe power, water cuts as El Niño looms
Nearby
Neighbouring countries