Colombia
Narrative updated. “Bogotá declares emergency as 'super' El Niño looms — reservoirs, crops and food security in the crosshairs”
Colombia is bracing for a strong El Niño, with forecasters putting the odds at around 80% and the government already declaring an emergency over expected water shortages. Measured conditions for 9 July–6 October 2026 show rainfall 33% above normal and temperatures 0.9°C above normal, but that window is the climatological dry season, so the real test is the coming rainy season and the December–March peak, when drought, heat and wildfire risk typically bite. UBS has flagged Colombia as the most exposed market in Latin America, while the Red Cross is scaling up anticipatory action on water, agriculture and food security.
1007.4 mm vs 758.9 mm normal
Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran 33% above the 1991–2020 normal, but this window is Colombia's climatological dry season (normally under 20 mm), so the meaningful signal is the outlook for the coming rains, which articles expect to be erratic and deficient under a strong El Niño.
News source26.35°C mean vs 25.41°C normal
Mean temperature for the same window came in 0.9°C above normal, consistent with article warnings of record heat and a 'super' El Niño.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Colombia drier. Observed rainfall is running +33% — against the canonical response; local factors are dominating.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (4.0°, -72.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Colombia and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Erratic rains and December–March heat are expected to stress second-season crops and pasture, raising food-security concerns in farming regions.
Reservoir and river levels are projected to fall sharply, prompting the government's emergency declaration and warnings that 'water will run out' in some areas.
Heat stress, wildfire smoke and water-scarcity-driven disease risks are expected to rise, particularly for vulnerable communities.
Hydropower-dependent generation faces shortfall risk as reservoirs draw down, with possible tariff pressure and tighter supply margins.
Warmer coastal waters and altered currents could displace fish stocks and disrupt artisanal fishing along the Pacific and Caribbean coasts.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Colombia responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions brought drought and heat stress to Colombia, straining water systems and raising food-security alerts in several departments.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño contributed to drought, wildfire outbreaks and reduced reservoir levels, with agricultural losses and energy supply concerns across Colombia.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought severe drought, hydropower shortfalls and crop losses to Colombia, prompting emergency water rationing in major cities.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSS"Water will run out:" Colombia declares emergency over upcoming El Niño
Colombia on Guard as ‘Super’ El Niño Threatens Record Heat, Drought and Food Security
Colombia: Red Cross is combining science and anticipation for El Niño
Colombia Declares Emergency as 'Super' El Niño Threatens Water, Crops and Food Security
Colombia is bracing for a strong El Niño, with forecasters putting the odds at around 80% and the government already declaring an emergency over expected water shortages. Measured conditions for 9 Jul
El Niño may test Latin America markets, with Colombia most exposed, UBS says
Nearby
Neighbouring countries