Panama
Narrative updated. “El Niño is squeezing the Panama Canal — and the country has declared a drought emergency”
El Niño's return has pushed Panama to declare a drought emergency and forced the Panama Canal Authority to cap ship transits on the waterway that carries a large share of global trade. Measured conditions for 9 July–6 October 2026 show rainfall 56% above the 1991–2020 normal and temperatures 1.3°C above normal, though that window is Panama's climatological dry season, so the real concern is the drier-than-normal outlook for the coming rains. The articles converge on falling Canal water levels, tighter shipping slots and rising pressure on agriculture and municipal supply as the warm phase persists.
1022 mm vs 655.6 mm normal
Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran 56% above the 1991–2020 normal, yet this window falls in Panama's climatological dry season (normally under 20 mm), so the meaningful signal is the drier-than-normal outlook for the coming rains that the articles attribute to El Niño.
News source27.66°C mean vs 26.38°C normal
Mean temperature for the same window was 1.3°C above normal, consistent with the warm-phase El Niño conditions described in the coverage.
El Niño typically makes Panama drier. Observed rainfall is running +56% — against the canonical response; local factors are dominating.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (9.0°, -80.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Panama and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Emergency declarations and El Niño-driven dryness are expected to stress Primera and Postrera crops, with the coming rains likely to underperform and raise irrigation demand.
Canal and reservoir levels are falling, prompting transit caps and heightened competition among shipping, hydropower and municipal users.
Drier conditions and heat stress are likely to worsen water quality, respiratory illness from dust and nutrition risks in drought-affected communities.
Lower reservoir inflows are expected to curb hydropower output, increasing reliance on thermal generation and raising electricity costs.
Warmer coastal waters and altered upwelling are likely to shift fish stocks and reduce catches for artisanal fleets along both coasts.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Panama responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño-driven drought forced the Panama Canal to cut daily transits and draft limits, delaying vessels and raising global shipping costs.
unsourced background2015-16
One of the strongest El Niño events on record produced drought across Central America, with Panama imposing water-use restrictions and Canal draft limits.
unsourced background1997-98
A strong El Niño brought severe drought to Panama, sharply lowering Canal reservoir levels and disrupting shipping schedules and hydropower output.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSPanama and El Salvador declare emergency over El Nino-fuelled drought
How El Nino is choking the Panama Canal
Panama canal to reduce shipping as El Niño strikes vital route
El Niño Tightens Its Grip: Panama Declares Drought Emergency as Canal Transits Are Capped
El Niño's return has pushed Panama to declare a drought emergency and forced the Panama Canal Authority to cap ship transits on the waterway that carries a large share of global trade. Measured condit
Panama Canal to cap ship transits due to El Nino drought
Nearby
Neighbouring countries