Costa Rica
Narrative updated. “El Niño is splitting Costa Rica into a parched Pacific and a soaked Caribbean — and the banana sector is already bracing”
El Niño has deepened Costa Rica's divide between drought on the Pacific slope and heavy rain on the Caribbean side, with the banana sector activating protective measures ahead of peak impact. Measured conditions for 9 July–6 October 2026 show rainfall running +194% against the 1991–2020 normal in a climatologically dry window, alongside mean temperatures +1.4°C above normal under an ONI of +2.16. The outlook points to a drier-than-normal Primera and Postrera on the Pacific slope, while the Caribbean slope faces excess moisture and the agricultural calendar remains on schedule for now.
1826.3 mm vs 621.9 mm normal
Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran +194% versus the 1991–2020 normal, a window that is climatologically dry in Costa Rica, so the anomaly reflects unusually heavy early-season downpours rather than a meaningful percentage shift in seasonal totals.
News source21.78°C mean vs 20.41°C normal
Mean temperatures for the same window ran +1.4°C above normal, consistent with the strong El Niño (ONI +2.16) described in the articles.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Costa Rica drier. Observed rainfall is running +194% — against the canonical response; local factors are dominating.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (10.0°, -84.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Costa Rica and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Banana and other export crops have activated El Niño contingency measures, while Pacific-slope staple growers face a drier Primera and Postrera and Caribbean farms contend with waterlogged soils.
Pacific-slope reservoirs and aquifers are expected to recharge poorly during the drier-than-normal Primera and Postrera, while the Caribbean slope faces excess runoff and flood risk.
Standing water on the Caribbean slope raises the risk of vector-borne disease, while heat stress and reduced water availability threaten nutrition and hydration on the Pacific side.
Hydropower output is expected to fall on the Pacific watershed as reservoir inflows decline, raising reliance on thermal backup during the dry months.
Warmer-than-normal coastal waters and shifting currents are likely to displace pelagic species, pressuring both Pacific and Caribbean artisanal fleets.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Costa Rica responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions again tilted Costa Rica toward a drier Pacific slope and wetter Caribbean, prompting early action in the agricultural sector.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño produced pronounced Pacific-slope drought in Costa Rica, stressing agriculture and water supplies while the Caribbean slope saw above-normal rainfall.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought severe drought to the Pacific slope, crop losses and hydropower shortfalls across Central America.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSCosta Rica’s banana sector activates measures against the impact of El Niño
El Niño Splits Costa Rica: Pacific Dries as Caribbean Soaks and Banana Growers Mobilise
El Niño has deepened Costa Rica's divide between drought on the Pacific slope and heavy rain on the Caribbean side, with the banana sector activating protective measures ahead of peak impact. Measured
El Niño could affect Minnesota's weather this year
The 2026 El Niño Crisis: Scientists Warn of a Impending Global "Super Niño"
Nearby
Neighbouring countries