Uruguay
Score moved 6 → 5 (high impact → moderate impact). “Uruguay braces for a wet El Niño spring as protocols target flooding risk in the south”
Uruguay is preparing flood protocols for a spring and summer expected to be wetter than normal as El Niño strengthens, with authorities warning of river and urban flooding risk in the south. Measured conditions through early October show rainfall about 8% below normal and temperatures just 0.2°C above average, reflecting the dry-season baseline rather than the coming wet signal. Regional analyses highlight that this event could rank among the strongest in decades, with implications for agriculture, water management and disaster preparedness across the Southern Cone.
262.7 mm vs 284 mm normal
Measured rainfall for July–October 2026 ran about 8% below the 1991–2020 normal, but this window is Uruguay's climatological dry season, so the meaningful signal is the forecast of wetter-than-normal spring and summer rains as El Niño strengthens.
News source12.56°C mean vs 12.37°C normal
Mean temperature for the same July–October window was only +0.2°C above normal, consistent with articles describing a developing rather than fully mature El Niño signal for Uruguay.
El Niño typically makes Uruguay wetter. Observed rainfall is running -8% — too close to normal to call yet.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (-33.0°, -56.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Uruguay and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Wetter-than-normal spring and summer rains are expected to favour summer crop planting and pasture growth, though excess moisture could delay harvests and increase fungal disease pressure in low-lying fields.
Reservoirs and rivers are likely to refill after recent dryness, but the same rains raise flood risk in the Uruguay and Negro river basins, prompting early protocol activation.
Flooding and warmer conditions could expand mosquito breeding and increase risks of waterborne disease, heat stress and food insecurity in vulnerable communities.
Higher rainfall should support hydropower generation at Salto Grande and other dams, reducing reliance on thermal backup during peak summer demand.
Warmer coastal waters and shifting currents may alter fish distribution, potentially disrupting artisanal and industrial catches along the Uruguayan shelf.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Uruguay responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions brought wetter-than-normal conditions to Uruguay, with flooding reported in several departments and increased pressure on drainage and emergency services.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño contributed to above-average rainfall and flooding in northern Uruguay, affecting agriculture and infrastructure while regional humanitarian agencies mobilised response resources.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought heavy spring and summer rains to Uruguay, causing significant flooding in the Uruguay River basin and displacing communities along the border with Argentina.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSLatin America & The Caribbean El Niño Humanitarian Snapshot as of April 2026
Uruguay readies flood protocols as El Niño promises a wet spring
Uruguay is preparing flood protocols for a spring and summer expected to be wetter than normal as El Niño strengthens, with authorities warning of river and urban flooding risk in the south. Measured
“El Niño is evolving now and will lead to weather pattern changes around the world”
Nearby
Neighbouring countries