Cuba
Score moved 6 → 5 (high impact → moderate impact). “El Niño's grip on Cuba: drier months ahead, but a quieter hurricane season may offer some relief”
El Niño is officially in place and is expected to keep Atlantic hurricane activity below normal through the 2026 season, a pattern that historically brings drier-than-usual conditions to Cuba. Measured rainfall for July–October 2026 came in about 15% below the 1991–2020 normal, with temperatures 0.7°C above average, matching the canonical El Niño signal even though the window falls in Cuba's climatological dry season. Humanitarian agencies warn that one in seven Latin American children could be affected by El Niño-related food and water insecurity, and Cuban agriculture, water supply and public health remain exposed if the coming wet season underperforms.
304 mm vs 358.8 mm normal
Measured rainfall for July–October 2026 ran about 15% below the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the canonical El Niño drying signal for Cuba, though this window falls in the climatological dry season when totals are normally under 20 mm and percentage anomalies carry little weight.
News source29.76°C mean vs 29.03°C normal
Mean temperatures for the same July–October window came in 0.7°C above normal, in line with the warming that typically accompanies a strong El Niño in the Caribbean.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Cuba drier. Observed rainfall is running -15% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (21.5°, -80.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Cuba and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Below-normal rains during the Jun–Oct peak El Niño window could stress rain-fed crops and delay planting for the November–January harvest, though the calendar is currently on schedule.
Reservoirs and aquifers may see reduced recharge if the wet season underperforms, raising the risk of tighter water rationing in western provinces.
Warmer temperatures and water scarcity could increase heat stress and waterborne disease risk, with children and the elderly most vulnerable to nutrition and dehydration impacts.
Drier conditions may lower hydropower output while hotter-than-normal temperatures push up electricity demand for cooling.
A quieter hurricane season reduces storm damage to boats and coastal infrastructure, but warmer coastal waters could shift fish stocks and disrupt traditional catch patterns.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Cuba responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
Moderate El Niño brought below-average rainfall to Cuba, stressing water supplies and reducing crop production in eastern provinces.
unsourced background2015-16
Strong El Niño contributed to Cuba's worst drought in decades, with reservoirs falling to critical levels and significant agricultural losses.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought severe drought to Cuba, cutting sugar and tobacco yields and forcing water rationing in Havana.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSOne in seven Latin American children threatened by El Niño: ‘This crisis can be mitigated’
El Niño Brings Drier Skies and a Quieter Hurricane Season to Cuba
El Niño is officially in place and is expected to keep Atlantic hurricane activity below normal through the 2026 season, a pattern that historically brings drier-than-usual conditions to Cuba. Measure
El Niño is officially here, raising confidence in a quiet 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
The Threat this Year of the El Niño Climate Phenomenon
Nearby
Other countries in Caribbean