Fiji
Narrative updated. “Super El Niño is building — Fiji's next wet season is the one to watch”
Fiji is on El Niño watch, with regional monitoring as of 22 September 2026 and local reporting warning of extreme weather shifts and a possible 'Super El Niño' through the coming months. Measured conditions for 9 July–6 October 2026 show rainfall about 8% below the 1991–2020 normal and temperatures 0.8°C below normal, a dry-season window in which totals are normally under 20 mm, so the real test is the November–April wet season. Authorities are urging preparation rather than panic, with sugarcane flagged as both a drought-exposed crop and a potential pillar of climate resilience.
189.7 mm vs 205 mm normal
Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran about 8% below the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the canonical El Niño drying signal, though this window falls in Fiji's climatological dry season when totals are normally under 20 mm and percentage anomalies carry little weight.
News source23.64°C mean vs 24.42°C normal
Mean temperature for the same window came in 0.8°C below normal, a cool anomaly that sits awkwardly beside the 'Super El Niño' heat narrative in some coverage and suggests local cloud, wind and ocean patterns are overriding the expected warming.
El Niño typically makes Fiji drier. Observed rainfall is running -8% — too close to normal to call yet.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (-18.0°, 175.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Fiji and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Rain-fed crops and sugarcane are expected to face delayed wet-season planting and moisture stress, with sugarcane positioned as a resilience crop if irrigation and ratoon management hold up.
Below-normal rainfall is likely to lower reservoir and catchment levels, raising the risk of water restrictions in urban and rural supply schemes during the peak November–March period.
Drier, hotter conditions are likely to increase heat stress and waterborne and vector-borne disease risk, with nutrition concerns where food gardens and root crops fail.
Reduced river flows and catchment recharge are expected to cut hydroelectric output, increasing reliance on diesel generation and raising electricity costs.
Warmer ocean conditions may shift tuna and coastal fish distributions, disrupting nearshore catches and aquaculture operations for subsistence and commercial fishers.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Fiji responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions brought below-normal rainfall to parts of Fiji, with dry spells affecting water supply and rain-fed agriculture before the pattern eased.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño contributed to drought conditions across Fiji, stressing sugarcane and root crops and prompting government water and agricultural support measures.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought severe drought to Fiji, causing widespread water rationing, crop losses and reduced hydroelectric generation.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSFiji on El Niño watch: What you need to know
Fiji sugarcane seen as key to climate resilience amid drought, El Niño
Fiji Braces for Super El Niño as Dry Season Ends and Wet-Season Rains Hang in the Balance
Fiji is on El Niño watch, with regional monitoring as of 22 September 2026 and local reporting warning of extreme weather shifts and a possible 'Super El Niño' through the coming months. Measured cond
El Niño warning: ‘Prepare now, don’t panic’
Nearby
Other countries in Melanesia