Solomon Islands
Narrative updated. “A powerhouse El Niño is brewing — and Solomon Islands' gardens, reefs and water tanks are on the front line”
A powerhouse El Niño is brewing for 2026-27, with the Pacific already flagged as a hotspot for climate risks affecting some 190 million children across Asia and the Pacific. Measured conditions for Solomon Islands over 9 July–6 October 2026 show rainfall 10% below the 1991–2020 normal and temperatures 0.5°C below normal, a dry-season window in which the more telling signal is the outlook for the coming rains. With peak El Niño impact expected November–March, farmers are being warned to prepare for a delayed and compressed growing season, while water, fisheries, energy and health services brace for knock-on strain.
559.6 mm vs 618.3 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall 10% below the 1991–2020 normal for 9 July–6 October 2026, a period that falls in the climatological dry season when totals are normally under 20 mm, so the meaningful signal is the outlook for the coming wet season rather than a dry-season percentage.
26.91°C mean vs 27.45°C normal
Mean temperature for the same window ran 0.5°C below normal, which sits oddly against the strong El Niño signal (ONI +2.16) and the warming expected in a powerhouse event, suggesting local cloud, rainfall and ocean-circulation effects are currently offsetting the broader El Niño heat.
El Niño typically makes Solomon Islands drier. Observed rainfall is running -10% — too close to normal to call yet.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (-8.0°, 159.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Solomon Islands and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
A delayed wet-season onset and below-normal rains during the November–March peak are likely to cut yields of taro, cassava, sweet potato and copra, with farmers advised to plant drought-tolerant varieties and stagger plantings.
Prolonged dry spells during the peak El Niño months are expected to lower stream flows and deplete rainwater tanks and wells, raising the risk of water rationing in Honiara and outer islands.
Drier conditions and water scarcity are expected to increase diarrhoeal disease and skin infections, while reduced garden harvests raise the risk of malnutrition, particularly among children.
Falling river levels threaten hydropower output on Guadalcanal and other catchments, likely increasing reliance on expensive diesel generation and raising electricity costs.
Warmer ocean temperatures and shifted currents are likely to push tuna and nearshore reef fish away from customary fishing grounds, reducing catch for coastal communities that depend on reef fishing for daily protein.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Solomon Islands responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions brought below-normal rainfall to parts of the Pacific, with Solomon Islands among countries monitoring water and food security impacts.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño contributed to drought conditions in the western Pacific, stressing water supplies and gardens in Solomon Islands and prompting regional drought advisories.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought severe drought to Solomon Islands, causing widespread crop failure, water shortages and food relief operations across the islands.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSPowerhouse El Niño Brewing: Solomon Islands Told to Prepare for Delayed Rains and a Shorter Growing Season
A powerhouse El Niño is brewing for 2026-27, with the Pacific already flagged as a hotspot for climate risks affecting some 190 million children across Asia and the Pacific. Measured conditions for So
190 million children exposed to El Niño-related climate risks across Asia and the Pacific
What are triplet cyclones? This rare phenomenon could have global impacts.
Nearby
Other countries in Melanesia