Vanuatu
Score moved 7 → 6 . “Vanuatu is on El Niño watch as a strengthening event threatens the coming wet season”
Vanuatu has been placed on El Niño watch as a strengthening event develops across the Pacific, with the country's dry season already running 19% below the 1991–2020 rainfall normal and mean temperatures 0.7°C cooler than usual. Regional assessments warn that a strong or "super" El Niño would test disaster risk governance across Asia and the Pacific, where 190 million children are exposed to related climate risks. The critical window is November to March, when El Niño typically suppresses wet-season rainfall and could delay planting and reduce yields for rain-fed agriculture.
207.4 mm vs 256.3 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall 19% below the 1991–2020 normal for 9 July–6 October 2026, a period that falls in Vanuatu's climatological dry season, so the more meaningful signal is the expected suppression of the coming wet-season rains under a strong El Niño.
News source24.4°C mean vs 25.12°C normal
Mean temperature for the same July–October window ran 0.7°C below normal, a cool anomaly consistent with the dry-season pattern rather than the heat stress often assumed for El Niño years.
El Niño typically makes Vanuatu drier. Observed rainfall is running -19% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (-16.0°, 167.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Vanuatu and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Delayed wet-season onset and suppressed rainfall from November are likely to cut yields of rain-fed root crops and garden produce, with knock-on effects for household food security.
Below-normal wet-season rainfall is expected to reduce catchment recharge and household rainwater tank levels, raising the risk of water restrictions on outer islands by early 2027.
Drier conditions are expected to concentrate water supplies and increase risks of waterborne and vector-borne disease, while crop shortfalls may worsen nutrition, particularly for children.
Lower river flows and reduced rainfall could cut output from Vanuatu's small hydropower schemes, increasing reliance on imported diesel for electricity generation.
Warmer ocean conditions and altered currents may shift tuna and coastal fish stocks, disrupting nearshore catches that underpin subsistence protein supply.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Vanuatu responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions contributed to below-normal rainfall and dry spells in Vanuatu, with concerns raised for water security and garden productivity.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño produced prolonged dry conditions across Vanuatu, prompting government drought declarations, water rationing and agricultural recovery support.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought severe drought to Vanuatu, with widespread crop failure, water shortages on outer islands and emergency food relief.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSKamal Kishore: A “Super El Niño” would be a test for our disaster risk governance systems
Vanuatu on El Niño Watch as Strengthening Event Threatens Wet-Season Rains
Vanuatu has been placed on El Niño watch as a strengthening event develops across the Pacific, with the country's dry season already running 19% below the 1991–2020 rainfall normal and mean temperatur
Vanuatu on El Niño watch
Nearby
Other countries in Melanesia