Grenada
Narrative updated. “CariCOF says El Niño is still strengthening — and Grenada's rains are already running 21% short”
CariCOF warns that El Niño is strengthening while Caribbean waters steadily warm, and the wet season has arrived with drought still lingering across the region. Measured rainfall for early July to early October 2026 came in 21% below the 1991–2020 normal, with temperatures 0.7°C above average, matching forecasts of impactful drought and humid heat over the next three months. For Grenada this points to a delayed, compressed growing season and mounting pressure on water supplies, agriculture and coastal livelihoods.
360.7 mm vs 457.5 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall 21% below the 1991–2020 normal for early July to early October 2026, consistent with CariCOF and Jamaica Gleaner warnings that a strengthening El Niño is suppressing Caribbean rainfall.
News source28.78°C mean vs 28.11°C normal
Mean temperatures ran 0.7°C above normal for the same window, aligning with warnings of humid heat and the backdrop of 2025 being Earth's third-warmest year on record.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Grenada drier. Observed rainfall is running -21% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (12.1°, -61.7°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Grenada and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Rain-fed crops and livestock are expected to suffer from a delayed wet season and 21% rainfall deficit, pushing planting and harvest back by roughly a month.
Reservoirs and catchment supplies are likely to stay under stress as drought lingers across the Caribbean despite the nominal arrival of the wet season.
Prolonged heat and humidity raise the risk of heat stress, dehydration and vector-borne disease, while drought may worsen food and nutrition security.
Lower reservoir levels could reduce hydropower potential while hotter, more humid conditions drive up cooling demand and fuel imports.
Warmer coastal waters and rougher weather windows may disrupt fishing days and nearshore stocks, with humid heat adding spoilage risk for catches.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Grenada responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions again brought below-normal rainfall to the Caribbean, stressing reservoirs and delaying planting across Grenada and the wider region.
unsourced background2015-16
A powerful El Niño contributed to one of the driest Caribbean dry seasons in decades, with Grenada and regional neighbours imposing water restrictions and reporting agricultural losses.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought severe drought and water rationing across the eastern Caribbean, sharply reducing crop yields in Grenada and neighbouring islands.
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