Guadeloupe
Narrative updated. “CariCOF says El Niño is still strengthening — Guadeloupe's dry season is already running 25% short on rain”
CariCOF warns that El Niño is strengthening while Caribbean sea surface temperatures climb, raising the risk of recurrent heatwaves and drought across the region. Reanalysis for Guadeloupe shows rainfall about 25% below the 1991–2020 normal for 9 July–6 October 2026, with mean temperatures roughly 0.8°C above normal. The territory is still in its climatological dry season, so the key question is whether the coming wet season and November–January harvest will recover under a strong El Niño.
270 mm vs 361.5 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 running about 25% below the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with CariCOF warnings of strengthening El Niño-driven drought across the Caribbean.
News source28.82°C mean vs 28.04°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same window were about 0.8°C above normal, in line with CariCOF's alert that warming Caribbean seas are raising heatwave risk.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Guadeloupe drier. Observed rainfall is running -25% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (16.3°, -61.6°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Guadeloupe and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Below-normal rainfall and heat stress are expected to reduce yields of bananas, sugarcane and vegetables, with the November–January harvest most exposed if the wet season underperforms.
CariCOF's drought warning implies lower reservoir and river recharge, likely prompting tighter water restrictions across Guadeloupe's communes.
Recurrent heatwaves raise heat-stress and cardiovascular risk, while drier conditions may worsen respiratory irritation and strain water-dependent sanitation.
Higher cooling demand during heatwaves is expected to lift electricity consumption, while low river flows could constrain hydroelectric output.
Warmer coastal waters may push pelagic species into deeper or cooler zones, disrupting traditional fishing grounds and catch volumes.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Guadeloupe responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions contributed to below-normal rainfall and warmer-than-average temperatures across the Lesser Antilles, pressuring water reserves and agriculture in Guadeloupe.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño coincided with severe Caribbean drought, water rationing in several islands and heat stress on livestock and crops, with Guadeloupe experiencing a notably dry wet season.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought pronounced drought to the eastern Caribbean, with Guadeloupe recording well-below-normal rainfall and crop losses in the banana and sugarcane sectors.
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