Guam
Narrative updated. “A strong El Niño is locked in — and Guam's dry season is already running 13% short on rain”
A strong El Niño is now in place, with the Guam Daily Post reporting the next strong event has arrived and USGS work on regional 'Super El Niño' impacts covering Hawaiʻi and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands. Measured conditions for 9 July–6 October 2026 show rainfall 13% below the 1991–2020 normal and temperatures +0.5°C above normal, though that window sits in Guam's climatological dry season when monthly totals are normally under 20 mm, so the more telling signal is the outlook for the coming wet season. Forecasters expect El Niño to suppress the November–April rains that anchor Guam's agricultural calendar while simultaneously spurring intense North Pacific hurricane and typhoon activity, meaning water managers should plan for a drier-than-normal wet season even as storm risk rises.
618.4 mm vs 713.8 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall 13% below the 1991–2020 normal for 9 July–6 October 2026, a window that falls in Guam's climatological dry season when totals are normally under 20 mm, so the meaningful signal is the drier-than-normal outlook for the coming wet season.
News source28.86°C mean vs 28.32°C normal
Mean temperature for the same window ran +0.5°C above normal, consistent with the strong El Niño conditions described in the articles and with the record global warmth they project.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Guam drier. Observed rainfall is running -13% — too close to normal to call yet.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (13.5°, 144.8°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Guam and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
With peak El Niño impact expected November–March, the wet-season rains that normally start in November are likely to be delayed or reduced, cutting yields for rain-fed crops and pasture.
A drier-than-normal wet season would limit recharge of Guam's northern lens aquifer, raising the likelihood of tighter water supplies and conservation measures by early 2027.
Warmer temperatures raise heat-stress risk for outdoor workers, while drier conditions and reduced rainwater catchment could tighten water quality and food security for outer-island communities.
Hotter-than-normal conditions and reduced rainfall-driven hydropower and cooling-water availability are likely to push up electricity demand and generation costs.
Warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures and a more active North Pacific storm track are expected to shift tuna and nearshore fish distributions and shorten safe fishing days.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Guam responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
The most recent strong El Niño contributed to record global warmth and a notably active North Pacific typhoon season, the kind of intensified storm activity forecasters expect to recur with the current event.
unsourced background2015-16
A very strong El Niño produced severe drought across Micronesia and Guam, with emergency water rationing and agricultural losses reported across the region.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought pronounced dry conditions and water shortages to Guam and the wider U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, a pattern USGS cites as a benchmark for regional 'Super El Niño' impacts.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSApril 8, 2026 Wednesday Spring Weather - by Dr. Ryan Maue
The next strong El Niño is here
There are more signs of a coming El Niño that could trigger record global warmth
El Niño expected to help spur intense hurricane and typhoon seasons in the North Pacific
Strong El Niño Settles In: Guam Faces a Drier Wet Season and a Meaner Typhoon Basin
A strong El Niño is now in place, with the Guam Daily Post reporting the next strong event has arrived and USGS work on regional 'Super El Niño' impacts covering Hawaiʻi and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacifi
Nearby
Other countries in Micronesia