Palau
Score moved 8 → 7 (severe impact → high impact). “Super El Niño is here — Palau's dry season just ran 42% short and the real test starts in November”
A regional Super El Niño is now driving markedly drier conditions across Palau, with reanalysis showing rainfall about 42% below the 1991–2020 normal for July–October 2026 and mean temperatures roughly 0.7°C above normal. USGS and Pacific media reporting warn that the peak impact window runs November–March, when suppressed wet-season rains could hit rain-fed agriculture, water catchments and reef fisheries. Pacific leaders are pressing for urgent regional action at UN and Forum meetings, while climate analyses caution that background warming will amplify each El Niño episode.
517.3 mm vs 895.9 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall across Palau ran about 42% below the 1991–2020 normal for 9 July–6 October 2026, consistent with the canonical dry El Niño signal and with regional reporting of a strengthening Super El Niño.
News source28.53°C mean vs 27.81°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same July–October window came in about 0.7°C above normal, and articles warn that continued warming will compound El Niño-driven drought stress across the U.S.-affiliated Pacific Islands.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Palau drier. Observed rainfall is running -42% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (7.5°, 134.5°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Palau and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Rain-fed taro, vegetables and fruit trees face delayed wet-season planting and reduced yields as the November–March rains are expected to underperform.
Below-normal rainfall is likely to lower catchment and reservoir levels, raising the risk of water restrictions in Koror and outlying states by early 2027.
Heat stress, waterborne illness from stressed supplies and nutrition shortfalls from crop losses are the main projected risks.
Drier conditions reduce hydro potential and raise diesel demand for power generation, with hotter days lifting cooling loads.
Warmer coastal waters and altered currents may push tuna and reef fish away from usual grounds, straining nearshore food security.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Palau responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
The most recent strong El Niño again tilted Palau toward drier-than-normal conditions, reinforcing the pattern now being repeated in 2026.
unsourced background2015-16
A comparable Super El Niño produced prolonged dry conditions in Palau, stressing water supplies and reducing taro and vegetable harvests.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought severe drought to Palau and the wider western Pacific, with acute water shortages and crop losses across the islands.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSNearby
Other countries in Micronesia