Marshall Islands
Score moved 8 → 7 (severe impact → high impact). “A super El Niño is rewriting the Pacific's weather playbook — and the Marshall Islands sits squarely in its path”
A regional super El Niño is now in place, with USGS and ReliefWeb reporting that the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, including the Marshall Islands, face a wetter-than-normal signal through the peak November–March window. Measured reanalysis for 9 July–6 October 2026 shows rainfall about 52% above the 1991–2020 normal and mean temperatures about 0.8°C above normal, matching the canonical wet El Niño pattern even though this window falls in the climatological dry season. Greenpeace and Nature coverage warns that a climate-changed super El Niño amplifies both extreme rainfall and marine heat stress, so the coming wet season is likely to bring heavier downpours and coral bleaching risk alongside the welcome recharge of water catchments.
871 mm vs 571.7 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 running about 52% above the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the canonical wet El Niño signal for the Marshall Islands even though this window falls in the climatological dry season.
News source28.91°C mean vs 28.07°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same July–October window ran about 0.8°C above normal, in line with the regional warming and marine heat stress described in the supplied articles.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Marshall Islands wetter. Observed rainfall is running +52% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (9.0°, 168.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Marshall Islands and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Above-normal wet-season rains are expected to support breadfruit, taro and copra production, though waterlogged soils and salt spray from stronger storms could damage low-lying plots.
The projected wetter signal should recharge household rainwater catchments and lenses after the dry season, but heavier downpours raise contamination and overflow risks.
Warmer, wetter conditions are expected to expand mosquito breeding and raise risks of dengue and waterborne disease, with heat stress adding to nutrition pressures.
Increased cloud cover and storm activity could reduce solar output while raising demand for cooling, straining diesel-dependent outer-island grids.
Warmer surface waters and coral thermal stress described in the articles are likely to shift tuna and reef-fish distribution, with bleaching threatening nearshore catches.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Marshall Islands responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño contributed to regional drought and marine heat stress across the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, testing water security and coral resilience in the Marshall Islands.
unsourced background2015-16
A powerful El Niño drove record ocean warmth and widespread coral bleaching in the western Pacific, with the Marshall Islands experiencing drought conditions before wet-season rains returned.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought severe drought to the western Pacific and major coral bleaching across the Marshall Islands' reefs, followed by a sharp wet-season rebound.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
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