Haiti
Narrative updated. “A potentially historic El Niño is bearing down on Haiti as the region braces for drought and flood extremes”
A potentially historic El Niño is forecast to drive drought and flood extremes across Latin America and the Caribbean, with Haiti among the countries flagged for substantial drought risk. UNICEF estimates at least 25.8 million children region-wide are exposed to El Niño-related hazards, and OCHA reports CERF funding is being mobilised in response. Although the July–October 2026 window was Haiti's climatological dry season and temperatures ran only about +0.6°C above normal, the coming wet-season rains are expected to be suppressed, threatening the November–January harvest.
411.4 mm vs 125.9 mm normal
The July–October 2026 window fell in Haiti's climatological dry season, when normal rainfall is under 20 mm, so no meaningful percentage anomaly applies; articles warn that the strong El Niño should suppress the coming wet-season rains.
News source29.48°C mean vs 28.91°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same window ran about +0.6°C above the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the warming background that articles say amplifies El Niño-driven drought stress.
El Niño typically makes Haiti drier. Observed rainfall is running +227% — against the canonical response; local factors are dominating.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (19.0°, -72.4°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Haiti and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Suppressed wet-season rains are likely to cut staple crop yields and could delay the November–January harvest, deepening food insecurity in already vulnerable rural areas.
Reduced rainfall recharge is expected to lower reservoir, river and groundwater levels, straining urban and rural water supply in the coming months.
Drought-related water scarcity and poor water quality are expected to raise diarrhoeal disease and malnutrition risks, with heat stress adding to the burden.
Falling reservoir levels at Haiti's hydropower dams would cut generation and increase reliance on costly imported fuel for electricity.
Warmer coastal waters and disrupted rainfall patterns may shift fish stocks and damage mangroves and coastal livelihoods dependent on nearshore catches.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Haiti responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions again brought drier-than-normal spells to Haiti, compounding existing humanitarian pressures on food and water access.
unsourced background2015-16
A very strong El Niño contributed to prolonged drought across Haiti, reducing harvests and worsening food insecurity for millions.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought severe drought to the Caribbean, including Haiti, causing crop losses and water shortages.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSAt least 25.8 million children in Latin America and the Caribbean are exposed to El Niño-related droughts and floods
Potentially historic El Niño to come, analysis shows humanitarian toll
Historic El Niño Looms Over Haiti as Drought Risk Mounts
A potentially historic El Niño is forecast to drive drought and flood extremes across Latin America and the Caribbean, with Haiti among the countries flagged for substantial drought risk. UNICEF estim
El Niño Threatening Substantial Drought In Vulnerable Countries
Nearby
Neighbouring countries