Kazakhstan
Score moved 3 → 4 (minimal impact → moderate impact). “WMO sees unusually heavy summer rains for Central Asia — but Kazakhstan's late-season gauges ran 51% dry”
The WMO has warned that El Niño could bring unusually heavy summer rains to Central Asia, a signal that runs opposite to Kazakhstan's measured late-season rainfall, which came in about 51% below the 1991–2020 normal for 9 July to 6 October 2026. That window is Kazakhstan's climatological dry season, when totals are normally under 20 mm, so the deficit mainly reflects a hot, parched late summer rather than a failed rainy season, with mean temperatures about 3.0°C above normal. The GEOGLAM Global Crop Monitor and global temperature reporting for early 2026 point to a warm, moisture-stressed growing season, leaving the autumn and winter rains as the key determinant for soil recharge and next year's spring planting.
13.6 mm vs 27.6 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall across Kazakhstan from 9 July to 6 October 2026 running about 51% below the 1991–2020 normal, a deficit that falls in the climatological dry season when totals are normally under 20 mm, so the meaningful question is whether the coming autumn and winter rains arrive on time.
News source23°C mean vs 19.96°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same July–October window ran about 3.0°C above normal, consistent with the global warmth reported for early 2026 and with the strong El Niño state.
News sourceThe spring planting and May–September growing season proceeded on schedule, but the hot, dry late-season conditions likely stressed rainfed crops and pastures through the August–October harvest window.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (48.0°, 68.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Kazakhstan and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Spring planting and the May–September growing season stayed on schedule, but 51% below-normal late-season rainfall and +3.0°C heat likely trimmed rainfed grain and pasture yields into the August–October harvest.
Reservoir and river recharge now depends on the coming autumn and winter rains, since the July–October dry season delivered almost no moisture to offset high evaporative demand.
Prolonged heat raises heat-stress risk for outdoor workers and can worsen water quality and dust-related respiratory conditions in the dry south.
Above-normal temperatures likely lifted summer cooling demand, while low river flows could constrain hydropower output and complicate winter thermal plant cooling.
Warmer water and reduced late-season inflows to lakes and reservoirs are expected to stress fish habitat and lower dissolved oxygen in shallow water bodies.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Kazakhstan responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño contributed to global record warmth, with Kazakhstan experiencing above-normal temperatures that amplified evaporative demand during the growing season.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño coincided with warm anomalies across Central Asia and below-normal precipitation in parts of Kazakhstan, pressuring rainfed wheat yields and reservoir levels.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought warm, dry anomalies to Central Asia, contributing to drought stress on Kazakhstan's rainfed grain belt and reduced pasture productivity.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSFebruary 2026 was Earth’s fifth-warmest February on record
GEOGLAM Global Crop Monitor | No. 43 – May 2026
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The WMO has warned that El Niño could bring unusually heavy summer rains to Central Asia, a signal that runs opposite to Kazakhstan's measured late-season rainfall, which came in about 51% below the 1
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Nearby
Neighbouring countries