Russia
Score moved 2 → 3 . “A 'super' El Niño is testing Russia's grain belt, Arctic ice and food security all at once”
Russia's 2026 summer and early autumn ran hotter and drier than normal, with measured temperatures about 1.1°C above the 1991–2020 average and rainfall roughly 12% below it, a pattern echoed by reports of hot, dry weather regenerating across western Russia and eastern Europe in August. Analysts describe the event as a 'super' El Niño whose influence on Russia is real but indirect, mainly through Arctic sea-ice loss, global food-market pressure and late-season stress on grain crops rather than a single dramatic domestic shock. Decades of farm gains and strong inventories are expected to cushion the food system, though the combination of El Niño with ongoing conflicts keeps global hunger risks elevated.
153.9 mm vs 174.9 mm normal
Measured rainfall for July–October 2026 ran about 12% below the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the hot, dry pattern reported across western Russia and eastern Europe in late summer.
News source12.02°C mean vs 10.9°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same window were about 1.1°C above normal, matching the hot/dry weather that regenerated across eastern Europe and western Russia in August.
News sourceThe spring planting and May–September growing season proceeded on schedule, with the main risk concentrated in late-season heat and dryness during grain fill and the August–October harvest.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (60.0°, 100.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Russia and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Late-season heat and a 12% rainfall deficit likely trimmed grain and oilseed yields in western Russia, though strong inventories and decades of farm gains are expected to buffer the shortfall.
Below-normal summer rainfall and above-normal temperatures likely increased irrigation demand and lowered river and reservoir levels in southern farming regions.
Heat stress and wildfire smoke in western Russia pose respiratory and cardiovascular risks, while global food-price pressure linked to El Niño could worsen nutrition security.
Hotter summers raise cooling demand and hydropower uncertainty, while reduced Arctic ice could eventually ease access to northern oil and gas routes.
Arctic sea-ice loss linked to El Niño is expected to shift habitat for cold-water species, while warmer southern rivers may stress freshwater fish stocks.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Russia responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño amplified global heat and hunger risks, with Russia seeing warmer-than-normal conditions and continued pressure on Arctic sea ice.
unsourced background2015-16
One of the strongest El Niños on record coincided with record-low Arctic sea ice and volatile global grain markets, though Russia's harvest remained broadly resilient.
unsourced background1997-98
A very strong El Niño contributed to global food-price spikes and unusual Arctic warmth, with Russia experiencing mild winter anomalies and mixed grain outcomes.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSHow two wars and El Nino could fuel world hunger
Super El Niño Turns Up the Heat on Russia's Harvest and Arctic Ice
Russia's 2026 summer and early autumn ran hotter and drier than normal, with measured temperatures about 1.1°C above the 1991–2020 average and rainfall roughly 12% below it, a pattern echoed by report
Decades of farm gains, inventories strengthen food system against 'super' El Nino
Critical moment when El Niño started to erode Russia's Arctic sea ice discovered
Hot/Dry Weather Regenerates Eastern Europe/Western Russia in August
Nearby
Neighbouring countries