North Korea
Score moved 2 → 3 . “Forecasters warn a 'supersized' El Niño could put the Korean Peninsula squarely in the crosshairs this season”
Regional coverage through 2026 warns that a 'super-sized' El Niño is building and could place the Korean Peninsula directly in its path, with Asia-wide preparations described as 'forcing a reckoning'. Measured conditions for 9 July–6 October 2026 show temperatures about 1.5°C above normal and rainfall roughly 5% below the 1991–2020 average, a modest deficit during the climatological dry season that says more about the coming rains than the past quarter. Crop-forecast warnings for the second half of the year have already been issued, and analysts expect the strongest impacts to arrive as the event matures rather than during the harvest now under way.
497.9 mm vs 524.3 mm normal
Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 came in about 5% below the 1991–2020 normal, a modest deficit during what is climatologically the dry season, so the meaningful signal is the outlook for the coming rains rather than a percentage anomaly.
18.4°C mean vs 16.89°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same window ran about 1.5°C above normal, consistent with the warming that articles describe as a 'supersized' El Niño signature across East Asia.
Planting (April–May) and the June–August monsoon passed without a documented break in the calendar, and the September–October harvest is expected to proceed on schedule, though articles warn of crop-forecast warnings for the second half of the year.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (40.0°, 127.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for North Korea and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Crop-forecast warnings for the second half of the year point to likely stress on maize and rice, though the September–October harvest is expected to proceed on schedule.
A 5% rainfall deficit in the dry season is not yet critical, but reservoir recharge will depend on how the coming rains behave under a strengthening El Niño.
Heat stress and elevated risk of water- and vector-borne disease are likely if the warm anomaly persists into the next warm season.
Above-normal temperatures are expected to lift summer cooling demand while low reservoir levels could constrain hydroelectric output later in the year.
Warmer-than-normal coastal waters of about 1.5°C can shift mackerel and squid migration patterns, with knock-on effects for the autumn catch.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how North Korea responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño year saw record global heat and erratic East Asian rainfall, with regional forecasters warning of crop and water stress.
unsourced background2015-16
A powerful El Niño contributed to a severe spring drought in the region, cutting reservoir levels and delaying planting in some areas.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought drought and food shortages to the Korean Peninsula, straining grain supplies through the following spring.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
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