South Korea
Score moved 2 → 3 . “A strengthening Pacific El Niño is already reshaping Korea's rainfall, harvest and winter energy outlook”
South Korean outlets are warning that a building — and possibly 'supersized' — Pacific El Niño will bring a warmer, drier pattern to the peninsula through late 2026 and into winter. Measured conditions already lean that way: rainfall for 9 July–6 October ran 29% below the 1991–2020 normal while mean temperatures sat 1.1°C above it, even though the canonical El Niño signal for Korea is only weak. Forecasters expect the anomaly to strengthen, with a warmer winter and elevated risk to autumn harvests, water storage and winter power demand.
469.5 mm vs 660.9 mm normal
Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran 29% below the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the drier-than-usual late-summer pattern the articles associate with a strengthening El Niño.
News source23.31°C mean vs 22.23°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same window came in 1.1°C above normal, matching the warmer-winter and warm-anomaly outlook described in the Korean coverage.
News sourceThe April–May planting and June–August monsoon phases proceeded on schedule, but the dry late-summer window and a projected warmer winter are expected to weigh on autumn harvest quality and winter crop planning.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (37.0°, 127.5°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for South Korea and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Below-normal late-summer rainfall and a warm winter are expected to stress autumn harvest quality and shift winter crop and orchard management.
A 29% rainfall deficit over July–October is likely to lower reservoir and dam levels, tightening supply ahead of the dry winter season.
Warmer winters and shifting rainfall patterns are expected to extend vector and heat-stress seasons and alter disease transmission windows.
A warmer-than-normal winter should trim heating demand but can raise cooling loads in extended warm spells, complicating seasonal power planning.
Warmer coastal waters associated with El Niño are expected to push fish stocks northward, disrupting catch composition and quotas.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how South Korea responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions coincided with an unusually warm Korean winter and irregular rainfall, echoing the pattern now being forecast.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño contributed to a warm, snow-poor Korean winter and below-normal precipitation, straining water storage into spring.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought a mild, dry Korean winter and drought pressure on reservoirs and winter crops.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSChanges in El Niño–Southern Oscillation and global frequency entrainment
A storm is brewing: ‘Super El Niño’ could put Korea right in the crosshairs
Korea Braces for a Warmer, Drier El Niño Winter as Rainfall Runs 29% Below Normal
South Korean outlets are warning that a building — and possibly 'supersized' — Pacific El Niño will bring a warmer, drier pattern to the peninsula through late 2026 and into winter. Measured condition
Warmer winter awaits S. Korea as El Nino expected to get stronger
Nearby
Neighbouring countries