Martinique
Narrative updated. “El Niño is strengthening over a warming Caribbean — and Martinique's rains are running 68% short”
CariCOF and regional outlets warn that El Niño is strengthening while Caribbean sea surface temperatures climb, raising the risk of heatwaves and prolonging drought across the Antilles. Reanalysis for Martinique confirms the signal: rainfall from 9 July to 6 October 2026 ran roughly 68% below the 1991–2020 normal, with mean temperatures about 0.8°C above average. Local reporting already describes drought and high temperatures taking a toll on crops, and the coming wet season is expected to arrive late, threatening the November–January harvest.
172.2 mm vs 546 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall across Martinique from 9 July to 6 October 2026 running about 68% below the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with CariCOF warnings of intensifying El Niño-driven drought even as the wet season arrives.
News source28.9°C mean vs 28.14°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same July–October window ran about 0.8°C above normal, matching CariCOF and regional reporting of strengthening El Niño heat and elevated heatwave risk.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Martinique drier. Observed rainfall is running -69% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (14.7°, -61.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Martinique and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Drought and heat are already damaging crops, and a delayed wet season is expected to push back planting and cut yields into the November–January harvest window.
With rainfall 68% below normal and reservoirs not recharged, water restrictions and supply stress are likely to persist until the rains arrive.
Heat stress, dehydration and waterborne disease risk rise as drought limits safe water access and temperatures run above average.
Reduced river and reservoir levels are likely to curb hydroelectric output, while heat-driven cooling demand pushes up electricity load.
Warmer coastal waters and heatwave risk are expected to shift fish stocks and stress nearshore habitats, while drought runoff reduces estuarine productivity.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Martinique responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño contributed to a dry wet season and heat stress across the eastern Caribbean, delaying planting and reducing yields in Martinique's banana and vegetable sectors.
unsourced background2015-16
One of the strongest El Niño events on record produced severe Caribbean drought, water rationing and agricultural losses in the French Antilles, with rainfall deficits comparable to the current season.
unsourced background1997-98
A very strong El Niño brought pronounced dry conditions and crop losses across the Lesser Antilles, with Martinique among the islands reporting rainfall well below normal during the peak June–October window.
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