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ENSO PHASE El Niño conditions, very strong El Niño, very strong
El Niño–Southern Oscillation

The Pacific climate cycle that shifts global rainfall and temperature. NOAA declares an episode after 5 consecutive overlapping seasons beyond ±0.5°C.

4 consecutive seasons past threshold

 ONI · JAS 2026 +2.2↗ ONI, last 24 seasons
Oceanic Niño Index

3-month running mean of sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region (°C). ≥ +0.5 is El Niño territory; ≤ −0.5 is La Niña.

+0.36 vs previous season
NOAA UPDATED 10 Oct 2026
Caribbean Capital: Gustavia 0 articles · no recent coverage

Saint Barthélemy

Minimal impact · 2/10 Typically drier in El Niño years

No El Niño news coverage for Saint Barthélemy in the last year. The score is built from the measured climate anomaly below, the canonical typically drier signal, and population exposure — not from headlines.

RAINFALL · LAST 90 DAYS
-22%

159.4 mm vs 205.1 mm normal

Measured against the 1991–2020 average for the same calendar window.

TEMPERATURE · LAST 90 DAYS
+0.9°C

29.01°C mean vs 28.16°C normal

Mean 2 m air temperature vs the 1991–2020 average for the same window.

SIGNAL CHECK
Signal showing

El Niño typically makes Saint Barthélemy drier. Observed rainfall is running -22% — in line with the canonical response.

NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (18.5°, -63.4°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed

When it matters

Agricultural calendar for Saint Barthélemy and where the El Niño impact window falls

JFMAMJJASOND
Peak El Niño impact
Wet season
Dry season
Harvest
Peak El Niño impactRainy seasonDry seasonHarvest Now inside the peak-impact window. Drought, water rationing; fewer but not zero hurricanes.

Last 12 months vs normal

Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology

020406080100Nov2025: 13.4 mm (normal 78 mm)NovDec2025: 13.5 mm (normal 37.1 mm)DecJan2026: 20.9 mm (normal 19.6 mm)JanFeb2026: 32.7 mm (normal 14.7 mm)FebMar2026: 36.8 mm (normal 15.1 mm)MarApr2026: 52.2 mm (normal 23.8 mm)AprMay2026: 9.9 mm (normal 57.1 mm)MayJun2026: 12.6 mm (normal 35.5 mm)JunJul2026: 20.9 mm (normal 53.4 mm)JulAug2026: 40.4 mm (normal 57.2 mm)AugSep2026: 93.3 mm (normal 88.5 mm)Sep
Observed monthly rain (mm) 1991–2020 normal

Nearby

Other countries in Caribbean

Puerto Rico 8/10 Severe drier Jamaica 7/10 High drier Barbados 7/10 High drier Saint Lucia 7/10 High drier Aruba 7/10 High drier United States Virgin Islands 7/10 High drier

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