Saint Kitts and Nevis
Narrative updated. “Drought warning holds as El Niño keeps the rains below normal across Saint Kitts and Nevis”
Saint Kitts and Nevis remains under a drought warning issued in May 2026, with forecasters projecting below-normal rainfall through the peak El Niño window of June to October. Measured conditions bear this out: rainfall for 9 July to 6 October 2026 came in 17% below the 1991–2020 normal, while mean temperatures ran 0.8°C above normal, matching the global warmth flagged in the July and August 2026 temperature updates. Because this window falls in the climatological dry season, the real concern is the delayed onset of the coming wet-season rains and the knock-on effect on planting, reservoir recharge and the November–January harvest.
224.4 mm vs 269.1 mm normal
Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran 17% below the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the drought warning issued for Saint Kitts and Nevis amid forecasts of below-normal rainfall.
News source28.93°C mean vs 28.14°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same window were 0.8°C above normal, in line with the global warmth reported in the July and August 2026 temperature updates.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Saint Kitts and Nevis drier. Observed rainfall is running -17% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (17.3°, -62.8°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Saint Kitts and Nevis and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Below-normal rainfall and a delayed wet-season onset are expected to stress rain-fed crops and push back planting and the November–January harvest.
Prolonged dryness is likely to draw down reservoirs and groundwater, raising the prospect of water restrictions across both islands.
Hotter, drier conditions raise heat-stress risk and may worsen waterborne and vector-borne disease pressures where supply is constrained.
Lower reservoir levels could reduce hydropower availability and increase demand for desalination and diesel generation.
Warmer-than-normal coastal waters and reduced land runoff may shift fish stocks and cut nearshore catches for local fishers.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Saint Kitts and Nevis responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions again produced below-normal rainfall in the eastern Caribbean, reinforcing drought concerns for the Federation's water and farming sectors.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño contributed to severe regional drought, prompting water restrictions and agricultural losses across the eastern Caribbean, including Saint Kitts and Nevis.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought pronounced drying to the eastern Caribbean, with Saint Kitts and Nevis experiencing significant rainfall deficits and water rationing.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSSaint Kitts and Nevis under drought warning amid below-normal rainfall forecast
Drought Warning Persists as El Niño Starves Saint Kitts and Nevis of Rain
Saint Kitts and Nevis remains under a drought warning issued in May 2026, with forecasters projecting below-normal rainfall through the peak El Niño window of June to October. Measured conditions bear
SKN Travel Advisory: Ebola Outbreak Warning; SKN Under Drought Warning Amid Below-Normal Rainfall Forecast
Latin America & The Caribbean Weekly Situation Update as of 26 June 2026
Nearby
Other countries in Caribbean