Trinidad and Tobago
Score moved 6 → 5 (high impact → moderate impact). “Super El Niño meets a wetter-than-normal season — what the numbers really say for T&T”
A super-strength El Niño, with ONI at +2.16 for July–September 2026, has triggered warnings of drought, heat and food-price shocks across the Caribbean in coverage from ReliefWeb, PAHO, UN News and Al Jazeera. Yet measured conditions in Trinidad and Tobago tell a more mixed story: rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran 22% above the 1991–2020 normal, while mean temperatures were 0.6°C above normal. The coming wet season and November–January harvest remain on schedule, but health, water and food-security risks flagged by PAHO and regional food articles still warrant close monitoring.
502.8 mm vs 413.2 mm normal
Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran 22% above the 1991–2020 normal, a wetter-than-usual signal that runs counter to the canonical El Niño drying signal and to the drought framing in the supplied coverage.
28.6°C mean vs 27.97°C normal
Mean temperature over the same window was 0.6°C above normal, consistent with the broader warming and heat-stress warnings carried in the September 2026 PAHO and Berkeley Earth articles.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Trinidad and Tobago drier. Observed rainfall is running +22% — against the canonical response; local factors are dominating.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (11.0°, -61.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Trinidad and Tobago and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
El Niño-linked food-price and supply shocks could raise input and import costs for farmers, even as above-normal rainfall supports crop growth through the wet season.
Above-normal rainfall has eased immediate drought pressure, but El Niño's canonical drying signal means reservoir and catchment levels should still be watched into the 2027 dry season.
PAHO warns that strengthening El Niño raises risks of heat stress, vector-borne disease and nutrition insecurity, with vulnerable groups most exposed.
Heat-driven cooling demand and any El Niño-related disruption to regional fuel or gas supply chains could add pressure to Trinidad and Tobago's power and LNG sectors.
Warmer-than-normal sea and air temperatures may shift fish stocks and increase stress on nearshore species, with possible knock-on effects for small-scale fishers.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Trinidad and Tobago responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions intensified regional heat and dryness, with Caribbean food-security and health agencies reporting heightened strain on water and agricultural systems.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño contributed to one of the driest Caribbean dry seasons in decades, prompting water rationing in Trinidad and Tobago and reduced crop yields.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought severe drought and water restrictions to Trinidad and Tobago and the wider Caribbean, with significant agricultural losses.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSNearby
Other countries in Caribbean